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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew Brockway who wrote (40092)	3/16/1999 11:48:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Andrew B; re: PZE - also E&P's, Big Oil & Integrated Oils are mixed fwiw... I LOVE PZE ! a must own value play... Big Oils, independant E&P's and Integrated Oils/Refiners are mixed - with the OSX basically bleeding Red... also; fwiw - look at what stocks are actually up today; JRM MDR HLX WG HOFF TCMS IIR CDIS OMNI - no drillers in that group - all const/service co's ... Drillers are ''THE" Mo-Mo plays here; 1st to Run & first to Fall... keep that in mind on the next cycles. Andrew; I own PZE - trimmed a bit on the last retracement; my wash sale expires on wednesday - so don't be running it up <VBG>... it will be a top 5 holding for me fwiw. But, this will be a slow mover - much disappointment in management for turning down an $80 offer a year, or so ago.... unbelieveable... But; the split up of PZL -PZE will unlock value. When we return to an acknowledged post $15/16 Oil enviroement PZE will fly imho. Remember everyone from Susan Byrne who appears on CNBC often and Michael Price who called PZE ''the'' single best 3-5 year play in the entire market; have touted PZE - it's day will come... PZE is the posterchild for longterm contrarian value investing imho. PSS...not to say ''I sold you so'' - but one has to not only trade/invest on what they as individuals think/believe, but also on what the Street is thinking and what they are likely to do... When we had numerous comments in the Press that ''these gains are fully pricing in Oil's move and OPEC cuts''; my first thought was - ''how could they be'' ? We had some stocks still 20-30-50% below prior highs during these recent rallys from September and even the weeks ago January post tax loss seling ''pop.'' ? We had a much better enviroment here and Oil prices were much higher - so why the worry ? How could the Street possibly say these stocks were fully pricing in this very positive OPEC news ? - this was illogical ! But, it didn't matter... Well - what was logical did not matter; what the Street was thinking at that given moment in time - was what was important ! That was ''ALL" that mattered ! Emotion, not logic rules Wall Street - so when the Street is in an Emotional vs. Logic conflict - bet on the Emotional road every time imho ! Sure enough; the Street sold off these stocks/took profits and the Hedge Funds jumped on the Mo-Mo move downward by turning on their Shorting and ''gunned the Stops''. A brilliant move, but not at all unpredictable... The lesson here; never, ever risk your entire profit base - ever ! Take what the Street gives you. What they have given us of late is the now - 5th (!!!!) trading range of OSX 45-50 to 60-72ish. Untill things change; it is really as simple as buying sub 50 and selling above 60 - or at the first hint of profit taking by the Street. Fool me once - shame on you; fool me twice - shame on me; fool me 5 times --- <VBG> ???? get the point.... Trade 'Em ! ...by ''Trade 'Em'' - that does not mean daytrading; I am not a ''daytrader'' in that I don't trade micro moves, entering and exiting stocks for 1/8th - 1/2 point moves. I would consider myself to be a ''Position Trader''. That being tading within ranges - here of late again OSX 45-50 to 60-72. The "Big 'Un'' has kept the Yellow Light on - quite appropriately and his original mantra of ''plan your trades and trade your plan'' has proven not only correct, but incrediblyprofitable to anyone who has played this OSX rolling range of OSX 45-60+.

To: Andrew Brockway who wrote (40092)	3/16/1999 1:11:00 PM
From: JungleInvestor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Andrew, PZE is my favorite E&P because it is so undervalued (I currently own only PZE and GIFI in the Oil Patch). The Chairman (Pate) is the "genius" that turned down an $84/share offer by UPR in 1997 for Pennzoil (equivalent to $60 for PennzEnergy) because he said it was worth $100/share. However, he did us recent investors a favor because IMO PZE is hugely undervalued!! PZE's two top operating officers came on board in 1997 - their President, Chesebro, came from Tenneco Energy where he was Chairman and President. Since Chesebro came on board, Pennzoil spun off their Quacker State/Jiffy Lube operations, leaving PZE solely an E&P company. This unlocks value (investors understand a focused company better), stops the Quacker State earnings drain, and improves the balance sheet by reducing debt (which is still high). He also formed partnerships to significantly grew PZE's overseas reserves in oil and gas (Petrobras partnership in Brazil is latest). They now have reserves in Azerbaijian, Egypt, Venezuela, Australia. Chesebro is implementing a cost-cutting program this year and reduced capex by 40% from 1998. Last quarter they had a big loss with many extraordinary charges (e.g., due to restructuring). PZE's price has plummeted from 16 on December 31, 1998 when the Quacker State operations were spun off to around 9. It has since recovered to 10 3/4. Susan Byrne (the brilliant Westwood Capital fund manager) estimates that PZE is worth $39. Michael Price selected PZE as his long-term pick in Worth Magazine's February issue and states that PZE could be $50 to $60 in a few years. With higher oil prices, no Quacker State/Jiffy Lube, and reduced expenses, IMO PZE's earnings should really take off (I analyzed their proforma statements for combined company and estimate that PZE would have earned $3.33/share in 1997 as a stand-alone company). When this occurs, the street will recognize how undervalued it is.