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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (58)	3/16/1999 12:45:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Rick, I wouldn't place any weight on whether or not something appears in "prey" - it was simply a watch list that could definitely do with some culling and revising. The issue one has to face in the third tier (and the bottom of the second tier) is "why now?" In other words, why should I buy this stock at $4 when I can buy it in six months time in the same range? Good science news currently only pop stocks for a few days. Even partnerships are now viewed somewhat skeptically, as investors have come to realize that biobucks often bear little resemblance to real bucks. The Lampert answer of course was that value and good science will ultimately show up in the stock price, although you might have to wait several years. Trouble is that it's hard for most people to have that much patience, particularly when the .coms beckon. So I would refine your question to companies with enough cash to develop their products without much dilution, good science and something exciting that might move the stock in the next 6 months or so. One stock like this that I own might be NPSP - they claim the Amgen calcimimetic program is actually moving forward nicely, although to us outsiders Amgen programs have a bit of a black hole feel - your pet product goes in and you never hear from it again. I'm not sure everyone know what your three favorites are - so you should probably spell them out. I'm guessing BTRN, SIBI and maybe OSIP. All these probably have potential near-term drivers. Has anyone seen a list of companies with products in Phase III? I came across a new one for me recently (Synsorb) and actually bought a little. Peter

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (58)	3/16/1999 5:14:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52153

Sorry I've been very lax, here's some cash values compiled anyway: Comp #Shs(mil)Cash(mil) $/shr S Price MktCap(mil) $Val/Val OSIP 21.40 $22.17 1.04 3.5 $74.91 30% BTRN 8.58 $20.00 2.33 2.25 $19.30 104% CEPH 28.73 $60.00 2.09 10 $287.34 21% CORR 24.40 $50.00 2.05 8.5 $207.40 24% TTP 13.10 $14.00 1.07 4 $52.40 27% MLNM 34.22 $150.00 4.38 34 $1,163.34 13% INCY 29.34 $110.00 3.75 23 $674.77 16% MBIO 19.60 $57.00 2.91 5 $98.00 58% AXPH 30.00 $75.00 2.50 4 $120.00 63% SIBI 90.00 $22.00 0.24 5 $450.00 5% ONXX 11.42 $20.00 1.75 6 $68.54 29% LGND 35.00 $41.00 1.17 9 $315.00 13% GLFD 19.56 $120.00 6.14 10.5 $205.33 58% GLIA 10.12 $26.50 2.62 23 $232.71 11% NPSP 12.50 $40.00 3.20 6.5 $81.22 49% CTII 18.41 $12.00 0.65 1.5 $27.61 43% CELG 26.64 $100.00 3.75 13 $346.33 29% PARS 37.00 $4.00 0.11 1.25 $46.25 9% ALKS 24.90 $171.00 6.87 30 $747.00 23% Wish we could post a spreadsheet for us all to update, change, etc. Meant to put something comprehensive together for MLNM ages ago, but I've been busy, sorry. DAK