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Technology Stocks : Identix (IDNX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: brad greene who wrote (12747)	3/16/1999 3:10:00 PM
From: R. Jaynes	Respond to of 26039

Brad, Nice Find. It looks like plastic card fraud in England has reached such high levels banks don't want to absorb the costs anymore. They're willing to shell out the money to move to smart cards (don't know if biometrics is involved.) Is the US far behind? web.lexis-nexis.com Rick

To: brad greene who wrote (12747)	3/16/1999 3:27:00 PM
From: David	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26039

Brad, I thought I saw a post from you describing IDX as a "wave" stock, but now I can't find it. Anyway, it might be fun to open a discussion over the medium term (next 12 months) future of the stock price, because I think that there are several models just under the surface of the posts on this thread. The traders and long/options players are looking for momentary advantages. The long longs are the philosophers. But maybe we see this the same. I think that IDX would be selling for more if it had no bio-ID investments, and I think that is crazy. IDX would be showing consistent and improving profits in the AFIS markets. Those profits are now buried in the larger company, which has money-eating divisions related to bio-ID. So at the present $5-6 price, either the AFIS profit center + ANADAC, or bio-ID, is not being valued at all, or a bit of both. However, my business model for the bio-ID fingerprint industry is as follows: The computer network OEMs have decided to use these authentication devices if they work easily and are affordable. In fact, fingerprint devices are being auditioned for ease of use, and some are being sold (via Compaq) to the earliest adaptors. I do assume these systems work. IDX/IDT competition in bio-ID is not very strong: Biometric Access' Biomouse; BII in some specialized systems; Digital Persona U are U (with no strong partner); Veridicom, etc., with technology that works best in a laboratory and worst in the real world. Maybe NRID has an in with DoD, maybe not (there has to be some reason they can attract HAAPI partners when HAAPI is not going to take over the world). When the auditions are over, the examiners will start buying in bulk. There are about 100 million computers sold each year, and just Mastercard alone needs 50 million POS scanners. (This doesn't include FAA type access applications, or potential F3 sales.) Chances are, this starts happening within the next twelve months and, when it does, everyone here will go into shock over the revenue figures. IDX can be one of those 'overnight successes' that are years in the making. I don't think this company is planning on increasing sales 24% a year for the next few years. I think bio-ID sales are going to go more like, up 10%, up 250%, up 600%. Stuff like that. We get to see the speculators after one or two spectacular quarters. Either that, or the company or industry just doesn't get traction at all. What's your read?