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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8277)	3/16/1999 4:32:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ========================================= Well we hit 10,000 intraday, and the DOW closed down 28, and the market internals still showing no signs of any dramatic improvement. Per my short-term technicals the overall market is a CLASS 1 SELL at todays highs. How much will it pull back, now?? The MAX-PAIN target on the OEX is at 625. pipeline.com The OEX closed at 655, so the MAX-PAIN implies a 30 point drop in the OEX by FRIDAY, which is equivalent to about 450 DOW points. That appears to be alot, in light of there only being 3 days left till expiration. Statistically, expiration week is mainly up or flat. Has anyone done a study on the success rate of the MAX-PAIN indicator? Im more inclined to say that the OEX will not be able to get that low by FRIDAY. Interest rates have been going down recently, but guess what - I just got a CLASS 1 BUY on the interest rates, meaning that interest rates should rise soon. I just want to caution that my CLASS SIGNALs on interest rates are not as reliable as those on stocks. I am still not expecting a huge sell-off right now, but feel that the stronger pullback could start more towards the end of MAR/EARLY APRIL. Keep in mind that the TOP of the 9-month cycle arrives in early APRIL. Could the DOW head higher - YES, but SO WHAT, since the overall market is not regardless what all the bullish analysts say. Untill the market internals start improving dramatically and consistently, I just dont feel the market can go alot higher. YES, the DOW can go higher, but remember its only 5-10 DOW stocks - BIG DEAL, in light of there being thousands of stocks. seeya