To: Z Analyzer who wrote (199 ) 3/18/1999 10:16:00 AM From: Arnold Layne Read Replies (1) | Respond to
M2 on Schedule, so far.
It is nice to see some interest here once again.
As a long time follower of EXBT, I am as frustrated as anyone. Not only has the company not offered instant gratification to its shareholders, it hasn't even provided the patient a return on their money, let alone a return of their money, at least not yet. This however does NOT mean that Mammoth II will be late. I genuinely believe that it will be delivered on time. The company will only say that it is on schedule so far, meaning that they have yet to encounter a problem which they believe would result in a delay. Beginning of the 2nd half is what they have been saying for a year. They claim to know that, they need to regain the confidence of both their customers and investors. Consequently, they want to produce first and talk later.
In my year and a half of dealing with the company, I have found them to be reserved, cautious and requiring prodding, but not dishonest. In talking to the press and Exabyte product users, I have always heard good things about their products and never heard anything negative (shady) about it business practices. They do seem to cater a bit to their institutional investors.
Regarding Mammoth II, remember that one of its strenghts is its backward compatibility, in addition to its low cost and HIGH performance. Its higher unit price should contribute to higher revenue if it sells at all well. Remember with EXBT's large installed base, Exabyte doesn't need to displace DLT, for the stock to do well, just maintain a nice bit of the market. Should M2 take off, figure on probably a 29% margin on anything over $70 or so million per quarter. That could be very nice.
Remember too that EXBT sell's their Libraries with either their drives or DLT drives, so for those who want EXBT libraries and DLT drives, they can have them.
I figure that technically this stock may drift in these Horse Latitudes, until something triggers some interest. It is a bit absurd to think that this company is trading below the total value of its: Cash+modest inventory+recievables, but that is where it is now. Given its strong financials, new product portfolio and the way it has been completely written off, it certainly must be a good bet.
Just look at how others, left for dead have fared. Apple, Novell and Unisys have all soared. And a look at the financials of Unisys would have scared the hell out just about anyone. Fortunately EXBT has no debt, just a ton of cash.
