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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Copeland who wrote (8297)3/16/1999 6:10:00 PM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Copeland,

Thanks, but Im actually looking for success rate, in the sense of having a statistical understanding of this indicator.

It could be off 50 points but if lets say it is accurate(within 5 points) 7-8 times of 10, then its something to follow. If its accuracy is only 5 of 10, then forget it. Just being wrong significantly once should not invalidate it.

I just dont know.

What Im looking for is how accurate is it within 5 points, 10 points, 15 points. Greater than 15 points is of little use.

I work with in statistical probability, and on a statistical basis that normally means 32 attempts. To disregard something just because its can be wrong significantly once is not valid. All you mentioned that it can be off by 30 points - do you have any idea what its success rate is. Im just trying to make an analytical conclusion - hey it may be worthless.

Seeya



To: Copeland who wrote (8297)3/16/1999 6:21:00 PM
From: Les H  Respond to of 99985
 
Maybe we should call him Max Headroom. They keep using the 3/12 data. Is there anything more current? I thought from looking at the cboe.com that the option statistics showed pessimism.