To: still learning who wrote (2328 ) 3/17/1999 2:22:00 AM From: michael r potter Read Replies (1) | Respond to
After the move on 3-11-99 to $49 + $8 13/16, it was proposed that SFE was "...one of the least risky stocks to own short to mid-term..." and the reasons were given. The most it gave back on a closing basis was 13/16. That statement is still true-from that level. How about now from todays closing of $59 1/2 ? Very soon, SFE should start acting different-more "normally". There are a fair number of shares held now by "hot hands" who have bought from $38 on up and many are sitting with good short term profits. Some will be inclined to jump ship at the first sign of perceived trouble. Heck, a few long term holders may cash some in after the past week! This should subject SFE to increasing bouts of sharp profit taking in the days and weeks ahead. I believe that nimble traders can exploit these pullbacks. Using the house analogy, there are still a lot of people outside the door who want in. The only way they get in is if someone inside the house can be induced to come out. They will gladly jump at the chance to get in on any significant weakness. There is little chance that this stock goes down and stays down. The supply/demand is still to unbalanced. After ICG is announced and especially, when it begins trading, I will be on much higher alert. We are and have been in the sweet spot where SFE is discounting the planned summer IPO of ICG. In the meantime, the background is favorable. A stock that won't disappoint on earnings. That owns a 26% stake in something big-imaginations will conjure how big with internet fever running rampant. A portion of the investing public that fears not catching the next big winner- a fate worse than possibly losing money [which is now an abstract concept as greed tightens its grip]. Miscellaneous: Take a look at a 10 year [log] chart of SFE for perspective. Just breaking out of a three year consolidation after the big mid-90s move up. Miscellaneous 2. On 3-11 SFE up 21.95% on 1.799M sh., on 3-16 SFE up 23.47% on 53K fewer sh. traded. Mis. 3. There has been much hand wringing elsewhere about SFE not getting proper valuation because of inadequate analyst coverage. Today, Pete Musser did one better. He took it directly to the people on CNBC. Want to bet it won't be his last visit? Best of luck-all disclaimers apply, Mike
