Off topic on market calls by Acampora.
I research these calls and track them as these are the guys who try to hit me at the worst possible time, yesterday he was crowing on CNN about 10th Oct, it was shocking as I was witness to following...As a student of markets please avoid this message for me my thread needs to keep this for posterity.. I keep a close check on Kurlacks and Acompora's of the world, they are the big guys but very small if you follow them closely..I need to keep them in control for I am the one who is hurt the most, they never loose their jobs, however I register my benign protest on my little world and let them know every one can be fooled except few..
Prudential's Acampora yesterday made a claim on CNN. According to him the bear market was over on 10th of Oct and his Aug call was the best call. I need to put the record straight for Prudential. It was begining of big decline on 8th Oct he forecasted not the bottom of a bear market on 10th.
<<Prudential's Acampora Lowers Dow Target to 6735, CNBC Says
10/8/98 12:26>> This is a call in middle of carnage and just before the key reversal.
I think Acampora needs to look back at his statements, it was not until NDX came back up to 1310 from 1060 and composite to 1648 from the intra-day low of1310 on 8th Oct that he changed his call to go long on 19th Oct. On 19th DOW was at 8466 when he called that DOW may take out 8600, from Oct low of DOW at 7467 Acompora predicted DOW to be at 6735 it was not before 8466 that he changed his opinion.
When the market reversed on 8th we were on the opposite side of his call and I was following him closely, he entered too late, I give him a D on calling the market on 8th as market was rebounding on falling bonds even a fool could see that 135 on bonds was not sustainable, the big hedge funds positions were being unwinded and here was Mr Acompora in middle of all that cutting DOW estimates.
<<Prudential Securities Inc.
chief investment strategist Greg Smith, recommended investors
increase cash holdings, while his colleague Ralph Acampora
reduced his target ranges for the Dow Jones Industrial Average
and Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Smith recommended that investors increase cash holdings to
20 percent from 5 percent, cut bond holdings to 25 percent from
35 percent and decrease stock holdings to 55 percent from 60
percent.
Acampora, head of technical research at Prudential, said he
now thinks the Dow Jones industrials will trade between 6500 and
7000. He previously said the average would trade between 7400 and
8250.
Acampora also revised his estimates for the S&P 500,
forecasting it will trade between 745 and 870. His previous
estimate for the index was between 940 and 1065.>>
I think Acompora need to refute the following posts or he should retract his statement of 10th Oct bottom of the bear market made so blatantly on CNN. He was big time short on 8th Oct and continued his stance until 19th Oct, four days after the ½ percent rate cut and the ‘big rally on 15th Oct.
On 8th Oct when market was selling like mad and NDX was hitting two years low, he was making following statement…. On 8th Oct he was behind ‘Prudential Raises Cash Allocation, Cuts Dow Estimate'
FYI
Subject:
(BN ) Prudential's Acampora Lowers Dow Target to 6735,
CNBC
FYI
Prudential's Acampora Lowers Dow Target to 6735, CNBC Says
10/8/98 12:26
New York, Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Prudential Securities Inc.'s
director of technical research, Ralph Acampora, has lowered his
new short-term target for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to
6735, CNBC reported. Acampora also said he sees the Dow trading
between 6500 and 7000, CNBC said.
The Dow was down 258.23 points to 7482.94 in recent trading.
(CNBC 10/8 www.cnbc.com)
--Ruth Drennan in the Princeton newsroom (609) 279-4020 /jjs
Story illustration: To graph the DJIA's performance during the
past year, enter INDU <Index> GP.
Company news:
4353Z US <Equity> CN Prudential Securities Inc.
Subject:
(BN ) Prudential Raises Cash Allocation, Cuts Dow Estimate
FYI
Prudential Raises Cash Allocation, Cuts Dow Estimate (Update2)
10/8/98 16:59
Prudential Raises Cash Allocation, Cuts Dow Estimate (Update2)
(Updates with closing market activity in 6th paragraph.)
New York, Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Prudential Securities Inc.
chief investment strategist Greg Smith, recommended investors
increase cash holdings, while his colleague Ralph Acampora
reduced his target ranges for the Dow Jones Industrial Average
and Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Smith recommended that investors increase cash holdings to
20 percent from 5 percent, cut bond holdings to 25 percent from
35 percent and decrease stock holdings to 55 percent from 60
percent.
Acampora, head of technical research at Prudential, said he
now thinks the Dow Jones industrials will trade between 6500 and
7000. He previously said the average would trade between 7400 and
8250.
Acampora also revised his estimates for the S&P 500,
forecasting it will trade between 745 and 870. His previous
estimate for the index was between 940 and 1065.
The revisions came a week after the Dow Jones Industrial
Average ended its worst quarter in eight years.
The Dow fell 9.78, or 0.1 percent, to 7731.91. The S&P 500
fell 11.24, or 1.16 percent, to 959.44.
--Deborah Stern in the New York newsroom (212) 318-2300 /rw/daa
Subject:
(BN ) Prudential's Acampora Says U.S. Bear Market Is Over (
FYI
Prudential's Acampora Says U.S. Bear Market Is Over (Update2)
10/20/98 17:50
Prudential's Acampora Says U.S. Bear Market Is Over (Update2)
(Adds perspective.)
New York, Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Prudential Securities Inc.
technical analyst Ralph Acampora said the bear market in U.S.
stocks is over.
Acampora on August 4 called for a bear market, usually
defined as a 20 percent decline from the market's peak. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average did fall 19 percent by Aug. 31.
Since then the average rebounded 13 percent, which Acampora
said helped change his outlook. The analyst said he was also
encouraged by the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cutting the bank
lending rate by a quarter percentage point last Thursday, and by
the recent rally among long-suffering small stocks.
''Our stance is to use any hesitation to buy attractive
stocks,'' Acampora wrote on Prudential's web site. ''The market
continues to broaden as volume expands. This combination is very
impressive, especially after the Fed's positive move on interest
rates last week.''
Acampora told Prudential's sales force today that the Dow
Jones Industrial Average hit bottom when it touched 7400 on Sept.
1.
In recent years, Acampora has been among the most bullish
market analysts. Yet lately he's changed his forecasts as the
market direction shifted.
In June, 1997, he predicted the Dow average would surpass
10,000 in 1998. In December, shares sagged amid concern about
slowing growth in Asia and Acampora reversed his call. In March,
after a rally, he returned to his Dow 10,000 call. In August, he
retreated again. As recently as last week, he said the Dow could
drop as low as 6500.
His recent bullish call, however, is no flip-flop. When he
turned bearish in early August he wrote that every four years the
market provides ''a new, major buying opportunity -- this is
called the 'Four-Year-Cycle Theory.' ''
''Hence, if we are correct, and the current market suffers a
decline to the mid 7,000 area by, lets say September/October
1998, then we could witness a major four-year bottom,'' he wrote.
The Dow closed at 7539.07 on Aug. 31, its low for the year.
The Dow today rose 39.40, or 0.5 percent, to 8505.85.
Acampora told Bloomberg Television yesterday that the Dow
could easily climb above 8600. ''The problems we saw in August
have been washed out,'' by the Fed cutting interest rates, he
said. ''I'm very optimistic we've got the big problems over
with.''
The bullish call was not emphatic. Acampora, who studies
share prices and volume to assess the market's direction, says
the earlier declines have taken a toll. For example, the Russell
2000 Index, a benchmark of small and mid-capitalization shares,
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