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To: Anthony Wong who wrote (1512)	3/17/1999 11:30:00 AM
From: Anthony Wong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1722

Lilly Falls as SG Cowen Reduces Prozac Sales Estimate (Update1) Bloomberg News March 17, 1999, 11:12 a.m. ET Lilly Falls as SG Cowen Reduces Prozac Sales Estimate (Update1) (Adds analyst comment in 4th paragraph.) Indianapolis, March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Eli Lilly & Co. fell as much as 5.2 percent after SG Cowen said sales this year of the drugmaker's top-seller, the antidepressant Prozac, would be less than the research firm earlier had estimated. Lilly's shares fell 4 1/2 to 89 9/16 in late morning trading, after earlier touching 89 3/16. Prozac made up about 30 percent, or $2.81 billion, of Lilly's 1998 sales of $9.24 billion. Indianapolis-based Lilly has been using magazine and television ads directed at consumers to boost sales of the drug. Still, a new antidepressant, Celexa, marketed by Forest Laboratories Inc. and Warner-Lambert Co., was introduced in the U.S. last year. ''You're finding some loss of market share due to competition, but this is an overreaction,'' said Anthony Butler, an analyst at Lehman Brothers, who rates Lilly a ''strong buy.'' In its report, SG Cowen said Prozac sales could be $2.93 billion in 1999, ''considerably below our estimate'' of $3.05 billion. SG Cowen also reported that Lilly officials yesterday ''expressed comfort'' with estimate that put its 1999 per-share profit at $2.25 to $2.30. SG Cowen said this suggests its earlier estimate of $2.32 could be ''a couple of pennies too high.'' Lilly was expected to earn $2.31 a share in 1999, the average estimate of analysts polled by First Call Corp. --Kerry Dooley in the Princeton newsroom (609) 279-4016 with