To: Ramsey Su who wrote (24310 ) 3/16/1999 10:57:00 PM From: Maurice Winn Respond to of 152472
*cdmaOne in New Zealand* It seems that Telecom New Zealand Limited is heading sooner rather than later towards cdmaOne. The New Zealand Herald 17 March reports: ----------------------------------------------------------------- Telecom is expected to announce within two weeks plans to implement a new digital network that could result in the phase-out of its existing analogue and digital networks. At a conference on third-generation cellular services in Sydney, speakers said that it would be a relatively simple matter to overlay Telecom's existing analogue network with a new generation of cellular technology. A consultant with Azimuth Consulting, Harvey Calder, said Telecom needed a new digital network to complete its vision of bringing New Zealand online and because it needed to be able to match services provided on Vodafone's digital GSM network. According to the conference organiser, Perry LaForge of the California-based CDMA Development Group, the digital AMPS standard currently offered by Telecom had been regarded as doomed to fail when it was developed in 1990, and that had spurred the development of digital CDMA. Although cdmaOne, the standard likely to be implemented by Telecom, is regarded as second-generation technology, it would have some of the multi-media capabilities expected in the third generation through an add-on technology that would be available later next year, he said. At first glance, a decision by Telecom to go for second-generation technology would seem surprising given that third-generation technology suited to full motion video over the Internet is expected within the next two or three years. But conference speakers said there were considerable uncertainties regarding third generation, not least whether there was a market for it and whether it could be done cost effectively. Meanwhile, analogue AMPS services which embrace the bulk of Telecom's customer base, are coming under capacity pressure in many countries. Mr Calder said CDMA would help to drive costs down, while potentially filling a hole in Telecom's repertoire by allowing roaming to Australia. Australian carrier Telstra is to deploy a nationwide CDMA network at the end of the year in compliance with an Australian Government directive to close down its analogue AMPS network. Rather than opting to extend its GSM network, Telstra decided to take advantage of CDMA, and will run CDMA and GSM side by side, operating CDMA from existing AMPS towers. However, with the new Nokia GSM handsets which are very attractive with several games functions, alarm, coloured covers and 31,415 ringing tunes, both Telstra and Telecom are considering reverting to full deployment of their previous GSM and TDMA plans. There has been some concern about some recently reported handset glitches, but the handsets have been so popular that this is not considered to be a worry. [...contd] ------------------------------------------------------------------ Well, apart from the last paragraph, which I made up just for Tero, it seems that GSM has been totally vanquished 'down under'. Just two or three months ago, there were people in all seriousness saying that GSM would continue in Australia. It looks like a total, complete and ignominious defeat for GSM, TDMA and the slimy hagfish. It just remains for L M Ericsson to get their chequebook out [the long one with nine zeros before the decimal point] and start thinking of numbers between 2 and 9 for some licensing fees, infrastructure joint ventures, ASICs and royalties. It has been just on 3 years since Qualcomm and Telecom met to discuss CDMA and Telecom decided to sit on their hands. Looks as though competition is spurring them on. Ericy will be scrambling to get an infrastructure supplier [namely Q!] so that they can bid for the Telecom business or they will find themselves shrinking their New Zealand operations dramatically. They will lose nearly all their handset business, and most of everything else. Analogue will die in a hurry! A cdmaOne tsunami is sweeping the world. Catch it, be smashed by it or be left behind. It's ready to break! It's the last second. Is Ericy chequebook big enough? This is much more fun that watching Iridium in trouble, which might be sad, apart from it being Motorola [who we should recall were trying to nail Q! some time ago while stealing a plastic housing with their unclean hands]. Ericy wiping out in the cdmaOne tsunami would be fun to watch. I'd prefer them to pay the entrance fee and catch the wave; but fun is a good second best. Mqurice PS: The conference is the CDMA Development Group International Conference reported by me some time ago. USA, Japan, Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong etc etc etc... This cdmaOne is busting out everywhere. China won't be sitting on the fence for long. Zhu is not stupid. He won't be wanting to pour billions into obsolete GSM. He's just doing a spot of negotiating.