Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Mills who wrote (109821)	3/17/1999 2:41:00 AM
From: Marq Spencer	Respond to of 176387

I would say that if DELL does not top $55 in the next 9 (which would be 39 sessions total, much like cycle 4) sessions--either this model has become totally useless <ggg> or DELL is not the stock it once was. ... Let me know what you think. Jeff, I think that Dell will break 55 towards end of next week. This week is options expiration and, I belive, that will keep a lid on Dell at around $45. Traditionally Dell has done that. Once the options expire, Dell should see a quick move up, which should be next week.

To: Jeff Mills who wrote (109821)	3/17/1999 10:04:00 AM
From: Rich Young	Respond to of 176387

Another interesting thing to note is that the longest cycles all occurred in the first half of the year, which is typically the slowest for DELL and techdom in general. I would not be concerned if we reached even up to 45 days on this cycle. Who's to say that 39 is the top of the range? The important thing that this whole model points out is the consistency with which DELL the stock and the company perform. Despite the blips, the long-term trend is relatively predictable. My gut tells me that we won't get to 55 until at least the first week of April, but I also agree that we should get a little pop next week after expiry. Also, earnings warning season seems to be passing with little to be concerned about. I haven't had the time to do the analysis myself, but is there any correlation between the length of the cycle and the delta from high to high or low to low? Might reveal another factor to consider. Rich

To: Jeff Mills who wrote (109821)	3/17/1999 10:52:00 AM
From: Fangorn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Jeff, re >I would say that if DELL does not top $55 in the next 9 (which would be 39 sessions total, much like cycle 4) sessions--either this model has become totally useless <ggg> or DELL is not the stock it once was.< You should consider a third possibility. Dell's run to 110 was obviously overdone even by Dell's standard. I think you would be justified in considering this particular high as an anomaly and not as an invalidation of your model. The spike to 110 is very obvious on a 1 or 2 year chart, i.e. it broke above the rising trend line that you could draw along the previous highs. If it had topped out at ~95 it would have been right in line with the trend over that period. Can anyone say parabolic? ggggg edit... I never for a second considered the second possibility that Dell might not be the same stock it once was. Call me DELLusional if you want but like Kemble I drool when I think about China and the rest of the developing countries around the world.