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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (25757)	3/16/1999 10:53:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

Since the Mythman has spent the day Awol, I need not feel guilty posting this....the end may well be near....and by April 6th its good by Jack and lower we go....... Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles update for Tuesday, March 16, 1999. Today as most of you know, the Dow crossed the magic 10,000 mark, remained above it for almost exactly 60 seconds, (we are not exaggerating) then dropped 70 points in the next ten minutes. We are not convinced yet, that the attempts at 10,000 are over. We believe there is a good chance of that short term, based on our 506 day moving average and at 17 ½% envelope above the moving average. Today the Dow close of 1.9% above that envelope, but based on the prior history of the indicator, we believe there is no more room for further Dow progress to the upside in this time period without having to consider the possibility that the 17 ½% envelope would now become support rather than resistance. Tomorrow the 17 ½% envelope will be around the 9750 level and we should head for the level right away now, if the short term outlook is bearish. On the technical front, we are seeing some trading Index readings that are as overbought as they have been in the last year or so. The 10 day Simple trading index closed today at .785, with the Open 10 at .777. Our own New 10 TRIN, however, remains around .90 level. The market internals remain as bad as any we have seen at a new market high in our lifetime, and now every bit as bad as the internals leading up to the 1929 top. It is almost inconceivable that the Dow has now rallied 1,500 (up 33%) from the August 31, 1998 low, while the daily advance-decline line is actually 1,829 units lower, that it was on August 31, 1998. Unbelievable! Please believe us that is important. We know many technicians are talking about it and many of them are saying it isn't important because everyone is talking about the poor breadth. Believe us, please, it is of paramount importance. Will we decline from here and rally one more time into early April? We cannot rule that possibility out, but from this point on, whether we close temporarily above 10,000 or not, we believe the bearish dye is cast. Mutual fund switchers, Rydex switchers, we did a special update today at 3:20 giving parameters for sale of the Rydex Ursa fund as a risk protection strategy. Those parameters were not met and we are still in the Rydex Ursa fund. All mutual fund switchers should continue to call daily after 3:20 ET and each market evening. Fidelity Select switchers are in cash. Stock Index futures traders are short the June S&P. Tomorrow, place your initial stops at 1329.40. Lower those stops to 1319.90 on any move below 1308.00. If you are stopped at 1319.90, reshort on a move below 1312.10 with a stop at 1322.40. There are no new projections on the XAU. June bonds appear to have a nominal 5 week upside projection to 123 ½ +- 16/32. That's it for now. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow.