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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (71)	3/17/1999 12:49:00 AM
From: RCMac	Respond to of 52153

>>I follow [CORR] and will post on integrelin if anyone cares.<< David, I hold a small slug of CORR as well, as you know, and I'd be delighted to see your thoughts on Integrelin sales. FYI, here are another SI contributor's Integrelin estimates as of a couple of months ago: Message 7578160 "Now here is where the market is short-sighted. CORR will likely do $70 million end-user sales [of Integrelin] in 1999. This should grow to $150-200 million by 2001." Assuming you have a sales estimate for Integrelin, or adopt the one quoted above, how do you translate that into an estimate of valuation (aside from feeling in your value-player bones that it's real cheap at these levels, and ought to attract CHIR's or someone's attention). And how would you assign a value to CORR's next product, Cromafiban, an oral GP IIb-IIIa inhibitor now in Phase II? Here is CORR's recent press release on Cromafiban: biz.yahoo.com --RCM

To: LLCF who wrote (71)	3/17/1999 4:36:00 PM
From: RCMac	Respond to of 52153

As DAK and I try to make CORR into a valuation case study on the thread, we should provide a little more background and a couple of links, so that anyone can play. CORR has one approved product, Integrelin, an injectable GP IIb-IIIa inhibitor (anti-clotting agent) approved by FDA last spring, with sales slowly ramping up. It also has, in phase II, another GP IIb-IIIa inhibitor, this one in oral form, Cromafiban (see the recent CORR Press release: biz.yahoo.com ) and some other things earlier in the pipeline. An outline of the CORR story, with a couple of links: Message 7535034 Integrelin is partnered with Schering-Plough (co-promotion in U.S. and Canada, and after an initial period, in Europe; royalties to CORR for sales elsewhere, rate not disclosed), which presumably puts something of a damper on anyone else's ambition to munch up CORR. The 10-K and other things I've seen are a little unclear, but it appears that the Schering collaboration is limited to Integrelin. The 10-K does mention "integrating" the two sales forces, etc., suggesting that SGP and CORR contemplate the possibility of expanding their arrangement to later products. What I've looked at doesn't say much about the financial terms of the arrangement - I assume it's a 50-50 split of the net where they co-promote), but I'd rather they'd said that explicitly somewhere. The 1997 CORR 10-K (filed 3/24/98; we're due for a new one shortly): edgar-online.com (The discussion of the Schering collaboration for Integrelin is at page 11.) --RCM