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Gold/Mining/Energy : Barrick Gold (ABX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan Lynn who wrote (1018)	3/17/1999 2:13:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3558

The industrial stocks have entered a bear market. The computer oriented stocks are in or have been in a bear market. Only telecommunications and Internet stocks are completing their bull runs. All the rest peaked in 7/97, 10/97, 4/98, 7/98, 1/99, depending upon which group. It is traditional for the DOW to struggle up to a bench mark in order to post the flag of what was achieved in that era. Just because the industrial stocks are in a bear market that doesn't mean there is some sort of "bubble" going on. You are making a major mistake if you think the Internet stocks are way over-valued. No doubt they will get a good correction, probably an excess one, but how did you enter your post to Taurus553? How did you buy CPU? Upon what does CPU depend? You can have a bear market that lasts for years and goes down 1% per year. Diversified portfolios lose 3 - 5% per year. Lots of individual stocks do great. The occurrence of a bear market doesn't mean that "tangibles" are in flower. You can have great economic times with little inflation, but still industrial stocks head lower and precious metal stocks head higher. By the time the clowns say, "we're in a bear market", they've lost 50%. So why did you buy CompUSA? The stock is locked in a horrible downtrend. It will go to 2 1/2 and sit there for many years. When you went into the store and were impressed with the service, that is just like Peter Lynch investment theory. It ain't worth two cents. He's totally wrong. You can't assess a company that way. CPU has a mass of antiques that even if they had "DELL outside", they couldn't sell 'em, and what they sell they get a 1% margin. There are those who are anxious to sell their bearish assessment of y2k. They want you to believe that it has titanic consequences. When you hear the FED making comments to North Dakota National Bank that their subsidiary in Coldfoot needs to get their legacy code written in binary up to snuff, you have to realize that this pseudo-problem has been substantially addressed. Even if the problem was never even acknowledged, it would never be an "earnings potential" problem. Accountancy problems don't change the future expected value of earning streams. y2k is just another myth some fool amateur bears who missed the entire bull market invented for reasons inherited from old time bears while the actual reasons for the bear remain unrevealed. In fact, I have yet to hear one amateur bear make a coherent argument of why we are in a bear market. The bears are bears because they are prejudiced. Meanwhile there is a bear market going on, but the bears can't see it! In a similar but inverse way that goes double for the gold market. It has entered a terrific bull market, but most of the so-called sophisticates, gold professed bulls, can't see this. They trot out all kinds of irrelevant stuff to convince themselves that gold is in a bear market, the world is deflating, and they should sell. They don't because they are prejudiced against making money any other way. The latest bull's excuse of why the market is bearish is seen in the recent decision by the IMF to sell gold. Reminds me of the Swiss Central Bank last year selling their birthright for a pot of paper. The IMF is a socialist stooge operation which, like the World Bank, does everything reliably wrong. They are a nuisance to the world's central banks. They are a wild card, the error term in the expectation functor. They fund human misery. The clowns, the majority whether they call themselves bulls, bears, or GATAs, somehow think that with 10 million ounces flooding the market and no one buying, the gold price has to plunge. When will all these amateurs, cbs, IMF, experts, professors, economists, mining geologists, strategists, the whole lousy lot of them get it through their thick heads that price isn't determined by instantaneous demand and supply. Never. Thus just like you shouldn't bet a dime on what Lynch or Buffitt say they do, you shouldn't bet a dime on what all the cognoscenti among the "Bugs claim they do. They sell at the bottom. You shouldn't do that and you shouldn't try to buy anything at the bottom. You buy a little of something that is starting to up trend, and then you buy more if it persists upward. You buy on the way up, not on the way down like you have with CPU. It's tough to do. In a bull market the thing falls all the way up and you doubt every inch on the way up. Again if you're bearish, why would you buy a stock in a horrible bearish down trend? Answer. It's cheap. The 'Bugs don't buy gold because they don't think it's cheap. If you still have CPU when and if it starts up trending you won't want to buy it, just like the 'Bugs won't want to buy gold up trending. They will patiently wait for it to drop back down, but it won't cooperate or they will get bearish so that if it drops, they won't buy. It's the inverse of you buying on the way down. It's easy. It's cheap. It's getting cheaper and gold is getting dearer. All of this seems confusing. Changes in major trend are almost impossible to detect. If that wasn't the case, the majority would know and act in anticipation to undo what would have been the change. You have to be somewhat alone in your investment action though it goes against Lynch and Buffitt.

To: Susan Lynn who wrote (1018)	3/17/1999 3:44:00 AM
From: .Trev	Respond to of 3558

Susan It's like the man said (at great length) " if the market doesn't go up or down, it'll stay where it is" Actually his style reminds me of Ayn Rand, I used to skip rheems of pages in her books too. The truth is nobody know for real sure. If it were easy somebody else would have done it and some of them did. Tread cautiously till YOU convince yourself!!!!! P.S. If you want some interesting reading try scanning the Sout African Mining thread and look for some of the posts by Searle Sennett, who makes good sense quite frequentlt. I think you'll find the Gold Industry is in a state of restructuring, and consolidation from SAf on out into the world, that will affect gold production for years to come. Don't just use one guru there's lots around. Try them all then make up your own mind. Good luck.

To: Susan Lynn who wrote (1018)	3/17/1999 5:15:00 AM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3558

"Is there any scenario in which a rise in inflation could be bad or neutral for gold?" Yes, when it is lead by interest rates sensitive instruments such as bonds, and the CPI data rates reflect a lower inflation status. This causes pressure on foreign markets. And either countries like Euro-land must keep interest rate pace, or watch the cash outflows occur. This is why the USD has risen in the preceeding month as bond yields rose. This takes away the support on the over valued gold markets, and when any little news article happens, causes the price of Gold to fall. It's only because of M2 rate decreases that the bonds are remaining high. Monetary policies act as a buffer by increasing liquidity, which as of late has dried up. This is Greenspans way of removing the excesses he applied in late August. Many have stated as of late on how strange it was that gold was going up, with the US dollar. But this is really not due to inflation. Gold has always moved best in deflationary times. Except people often confuse interest rates increases with that of inflation, because often the two move in step. But in higher growth times, where growth out paces inflation, gold actually falls, as currency strengthen. Long bonds are only reflecting the lower M2 rates, or Monetary inflation if you prefer. After a while these yileds will either lower or CPI inflation will pick up. If CPI moves, so will the DOW {down}. Consider this: cost of production has an affect on gold. What are the costs? Fuel, wages, machines.. etc. Oil?