A classic post. ahhaha should write a book, of course, most of the Jerry Springer crowd couldn't comprehend his line of thinking.....-g-
To: Susan Lynn (1018 )
From: ahhaha
Wednesday, Mar 17 1999 2:13AM ET
Reply # of 1021
The industrial stocks have entered a bear market. The computer oriented stocks are in or
have been in a bear market. Only telecommunications and Internet stocks are completing
their bull runs. All the rest peaked in 7/97, 10/97, 4/98, 7/98, 1/99, depending upon which
group.
It is traditional for the DOW to struggle up to a bench mark in order to post the flag of
what was achieved in that era. Just because the industrial stocks are in a bear market that
doesn't mean there is some sort of "bubble" going on. You are making a major mistake if
you think the Internet stocks are way over-valued. No doubt they will get a good
correction, probably an excess one, but how did you enter your post to Taurus553? How
did you buy CPU? Upon what does CPU depend?
You can have a bear market that lasts for years and goes down 1% per year. Diversified
portfolios lose 3 - 5% per year. Lots of individual stocks do great. The occurrence of a
bear market doesn't mean that "tangibles" are in flower. You can have great economic
times with little inflation, but still industrial stocks head lower and precious metal stocks
head higher. By the time the clowns say, "we're in a bear market", they've lost 50%. So
why did you buy CompUSA?
The stock is locked in a horrible downtrend. It will go to 2 1/2 and sit there for many
years. When you went into the store and were impressed with the service, that is just like
Peter Lynch investment theory. It ain't worth two cents. He's totally wrong. You can't
assess a company that way. CPU has a mass of antiques that even if they had "DELL
outside", they couldn't sell 'em, and what they sell they get a 1% margin.
There are those who are anxious to sell their bearish assessment of y2k. They want you
to believe that it has titanic consequences. When you hear the FED making comments to
North Dakota National Bank that their subsidiary in Coldfoot needs to get their legacy
code written in binary up to snuff, you have to realize that this pseudo-problem has been
substantially addressed. Even if the problem was never even acknowledged, it would
never be an "earnings potential" problem. Accountancy problems don't change the future
expected value of earning streams. y2k is just another myth some fool amateur bears who
missed the entire bull market invented for reasons inherited from old time bears while the
actual reasons for the bear remain unrevealed. In fact, I have yet to hear one amateur
bear make a coherent argument of why we are in a bear market.
The bears are bears because they are prejudiced. Meanwhile there is a bear market going
on, but the bears can't see it! In a similar but inverse way that goes double for the gold
market. It has entered a terrific bull market, but most of the so-called sophisticates, gold
professed bulls, can't see this. They trot out all kinds of irrelevant stuff to convince
themselves that gold is in a bear market, the world is deflating, and they should sell. They
don't because they are prejudiced against making money any other way. The latest bull's
excuse of why the market is bearish is seen in the recent decision by the IMF to sell gold.
Reminds me of the Swiss Central Bank last year selling their birthright for a pot of paper.
The IMF is a socialist stooge operation which, like the World Bank, does everything
reliably wrong. They are a nuisance to the world's central banks. They are a wild card,
the error term in the expectation functor. They fund human misery. The clowns, the
majority whether they call themselves bulls, bears, or GATAs, somehow think that with 10
million ounces flooding the market and no one buying, the gold price has to plunge. When
will all these amateurs, cbs, IMF, experts, professors, economists, mining geologists,
strategists, the whole lousy lot of them get it through their thick heads that price isn't
determined by instantaneous demand and supply. Never.
Thus just like you shouldn't bet a dime on what Lynch or Buffitt say they do, you shouldn't
bet a dime on what all the cognoscenti among the "Bugs claim they do. They sell at the
bottom. You shouldn't do that and you shouldn't try to buy anything at the bottom. You buy
a little of something that is starting to up trend, and then you buy more if it persists
upward. You buy on the way up, not on the way down like you have with CPU. It's tough
to do. In a bull market the thing falls all the way up and you doubt every inch on the way
up. Again if you're bearish, why would you buy a stock in a horrible bearish down trend?
Answer. It's cheap.
The 'Bugs don't buy gold because they don't think it's cheap. If you still have CPU when
and if it starts up trending you won't want to buy it, just like the 'Bugs won't want to buy
gold up trending. They will patiently wait for it to drop back down, but it won't cooperate
or they will get bearish so that if it drops, they won't buy. It's the inverse of you buying on
the way down. It's easy. It's cheap. It's getting cheaper and gold is getting dearer. All of
this seems confusing. Changes in major trend are almost impossible to detect. If that
wasn't the case, the majority would know and act in anticipation to undo what would have
been the change. You have to be somewhat alone in your investment action though it goes
against Lynch and Buffitt. |
