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Strategies & Market Trends : Screening for Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JZGalt who wrote (23)	3/17/1999 9:16:00 PM
From: paul s.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45

JZGalt...great idea for a thread... Two contributions I would like to make at this time if I may: Trendlines...check out the December 1998 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Comm. magazine for a very well done explanation of trendlines...has the pictures that TLC left out of his explanation... Screening...I have started using the "technical" screener here: easystock.com FWIW...I screen for technicals first, then check for any red flags on the fundamental side... paul

To: JZGalt who wrote (23)	3/19/1999 11:05:00 PM
From: LemonHead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45

In sharing your experimental screen, are you using one that you have developed or one from the Confirmatory Analysis Site posted on the header of this thread? I assume it is the CA site, so I will test this criteria there for other sectors. Could you also further explain GARP (Growth At a Reasonable Price). When you say they are cheap enough, are you referring to 3, 12 or 36 months ago as to the price of the stock? "We all know some analysts are good and some are bad." Is there a rating somewhere? I assume that we are talking about the analysts for the Technology Based Industry. Can we put the Good, Bad & the Ugly in our 101 handbook for Screening for Winners? You emphasize "where the company is going" and then you discuss 5 year eps growth. Where does the future eps growth come from and how is it calculated? If from the analysts, do we need to drop the Ugly and refigure the eps growth projections and then re apply for evaluation? "If the company has had their eps cut, then avoid it for at least 3 months. This will give you time to discover if the company is really having a problem, or the problem is a blip." I obtained a copy of an ML report on ORB (Orbital Sciences Corp) dated 3/18/99 which is a company that you previously stated you own. In this report they have cut eps for 1999 from $1.39 to $1.05. Does this in your opinion mean that ORB will move sideways for the next 3 months? Or are there other factors in this report that negate the eps downgrade? On to test my screening lessons. Congrats to the CA guys and their SFE pick this month. It appears they can connect the dots on trend lines! ;-) Keith

To: JZGalt who wrote (23)	3/21/1999 8:26:00 AM
From: Don Pueblo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45

Dave, I got onto something a couple of years ago that has helped me, and it might be helpful to you as well. In addition to looking at the forward EPS, try a chart of the 12 month cumulative earnings on a quarterly basis. In other words, take the current quarter, add it to the prior 3 and take that number and chart it. Then go back one quarter and add that number to its prior 3 quarters and chart that number. You can read a trend on this chart just like any other chart. This might be a good addition to your screening of forward earnings.