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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (40185)	3/17/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

< don't think we should dismiss the concerns regarding FLC's debt > ...No arguement with that. O/T...time to let sleeping dogs lie <VBG> ? Agreed; FLC is a ''risk'' play and crude prices will be it's savior (really it needs increasing Rig utilization quickly and can not have any bad contract news here), or its executioner. By executioner - I do not think that FLC would be going under/Bankrupt ANY time soon - but it's stockprice would get hammered beyond belief and new lows would be a gimmie. It should probably be owned here only in small portions - in the risk portion of the portfolio - if at all... The main question is - are their better risk vs. reward plays here ? FLC has the highest upside % return in not just returning to the initial price levels of the 1st selloff and rally in Sept, but also in its earnings leverage to the upside 2-3 years down the road. But, they will be a ''Short Magnet'' on any bad news - ''any'' ... so is it worth the risk here ? - Not for most people imho. FLC may also be a nice ''pop'' stock on a Major move - post OPEC meeting, but I would use the tightest stops in history in trading FLC. Certainly like playing with ''fire'' of late. If trading FLC I would get out on''any'' slight hint of bad news, or a retracement - get out quicker than the lights get dark when you flip the switch... Personally; the E&P's have the best risk vs. reward ratio here imho. They get an immediate cash realization from increasing prices - they also get to benefit by historically low Drilling costs - which are often 50% of a projects costs. E&P's who are low cost producers and who have the cash to be producing/growing here are great plays... THX just got a huge cash infusion from it's parent company Keyspan Energy ... for drillling - I'd watch for these types of moves and do the ''DD" on E&P's ... the Natural Gas ''secret'' is now out of the bag...damn.