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Biotech / Medical : Imclone systems (IMCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raven McCloud who wrote (458)	3/17/1999 11:39:00 AM
From: Sea Otter	Respond to of 2515

Thank you. Yes, I was in GMGC big last year. I remember you over there about that time. Still have a small long position in GMGC, which isn't doing so great right now. I follow a lot of biotechs, IMCL popped onto my radar a few months ago while reading trial results. Regards.

To: Raven McCloud who wrote (458)	3/17/1999 12:14:00 PM
From: 5,17,37,5,101,...	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2515

Raven, I've thought a bit about your reason for shorting, the high probability that the stock will retreat to $13 as interest fades due to lengthy clinical trials, but while I think this very true on average, it's not really a good bet in every situation because investors' percieved outcome of clinical trials will depend on a few things: 1) side effects; 2) efficacy; 3) FDA approval and time to; 4) net cash flow from sales. In IMCL's case 1) few if any side effects ; 2) efficacy highly probable; 3) 2 yrs likely always longer than expected 4) depends on competing drugs and IMO the caveat here. Still, I think the market for such drugs is large enough for IMCL to make an awful lot of money. IMCL will obviously find a trading range somewhere; where is a tough call. Jackson