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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daniel G. DeBusschere who wrote (6788)	3/17/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: Ishmael	Respond to of 12623

I'm glad to see more longs than shorts on the thread! I too believe that this was a fantastic move by CIEN and will yield high returns in the medium to long term. On the lighter side, has anyone looked at this... ciena.com It looks like Pat is thumbing his nose a LU and their "What's it going to take" campaign.

To: Daniel G. DeBusschere who wrote (6788)	3/17/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: David Harker	Respond to of 12623

I was unaware of the details of the Cascade/Ascend deal, but it does have similarities w/ Ciena's latest acquisitions. I may add more as well, esp. if it hits $20.

To: Daniel G. DeBusschere who wrote (6788)	3/19/1999 4:58:00 PM
From: Rob Pierce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

...in view of the ASCEND moves it looks like a good deal. Absolutely agree. Ascend bought the technology that they knew a suitor would want. Ascend's acquisition of Cascade was one step in that direction. Their acquisition of Stratus and Stratus's telco products was the real telling move. They were looking to be bought and made themselves irresistable. Ciena's acquisitions are in the same vein. Collect the leading edge technologies that have synergy with current products, and that also provide an enticing package for a would be suitor. The question then is: who would Ciena >want< to be acquired by? The article on CBS Newswatch "Don't let photonics pass you by": cbs.marketwatch.com lists photonics euipment players including CIEN, LU, NT and ALA. Tellabs is noticeably absent. Given that they tried to acquire CIEN once, I think they'll be back. An acquisition of Ciena could ultimnately save their long-term bacon. Cisco'd be another, but they rarely do big deals and Ciena's probably a bigger meal than they'd otherwise like. Still, they're missing from the photonics field also and could really use a good acquisition there. With Ciena picking up the emerging technologies early (a typical Cisco move), they may stand a better chance of making themselves irresistable to Cisco. What both of these would provide Ciena is greater market penetration and better financial backing. Cisco might be the better one to be acquired by, but Ciena has would have more clout in a deal with Tellabs. I think Tellabs is still the most likely acquiror, but Cisco (despite Chambers' denials) is not out of line. The original Tellabs deal was scuttled by outside forces, not from management conflicts. My guess is that if Ciena's stock price recovers to an acceptable ratio of Tellabs' stock price, the Tellabs deal could resurface on very short notice. RP