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Gold/Mining/Energy : Swift Energy (SFY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark who wrote (733)	3/20/1999 9:28:00 AM
From: Mark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1602

Where is everyone ? Too busy partying I suppose....... Another nice move on Friday. This was particularly rewarding given that all the other O&G stocks were weak. I suppose that triple witching made it a strange day. Oil seems to have stabilised at around $15, but NG has fallen back to around $1.70. At the moment Oil is nearly 9x the price of NG, which is quite a lot more than than the historical average of 6x - 7x. However, I guess we still have quite high inventory levels - one article I found suggests that whilst there has been quite a draw on AGA in the last few weeks, there is still 33% more NG in storage than this time last year. It would seem there are high hopes that agreement will be reached on oil cutbacks this week, and that Oil prices will continue to be strong. This should be good for SFY, as (based on last Q's report) about 1/3 of their output is oil (for which they received just $11.74 last quarter). This increase in market price would mean 6c higher quarterly EPS. It would be even nicer if NG would now catch up ! I'm not sure that I'm expecting terribly good figures for the current quarter because I doubt that SFY will yet be seeing any pricing benefits. However, I should think their numbers will be in-line with analyst estimates, and I am hoping that in the next few months we will see some earnings upgrades and some positive broker comments. Is anyone able to give a reading on the SFY chart. Surely we are getting close to breaking some of the longer term moving averages ? I'd like to see a strong positive move on >300k volume to be confident that the worst is now well and truly behind us (and therefore that the shorts are history). I like the following chart. I haven't got a clue what the MA timescales are, but it seems to have fitted the decline extremely well. It suggests that we are in the process of breaking the longer term MA, which should be extremely bullish. iqc.com Am I the only person celebrating here ? Mark