Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (2753)	3/18/1999 1:28:00 AM
From: Rolla Coasta	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

The PRC is about to takeover Macau in this year. I can see some problems here. The reason is that there're lots of mafia in Macau, much like ones in Italy or Chicago in the '20s. If the president of China is going to come and attend the takeover ceremony, I hope he wouldn't get assasinated. Ever since the PRC has taken over HK, most of the HK's well-known mafia have moved to Macau and settle down. But, there has been lots of killing between them. They even challenge the police department and the Portugese gov. Hell, the PRC might send troops to storm the city and get rid of the mafia in blitz. Hope there won't be any street fighting. On the other hands, the US could bring this issue to pressure the chinese gov as violating human rights. I think the takeover this time won't be as easy as the one in '97. Let's just see what will happen.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (2753)	3/18/1999 4:42:00 AM
From: David C. Parker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

Ramsey: Wow! What a Task! My view is that there are some good things starting to emerge out of Asia, obviously S Korea; but also in Thailand and Indonesia. In Indonesia's case I think the problem was always over-dramatised by the media. Their recent banking reforms are very positive; also the Thai bankruptcy law (even though it is not perfect it's much better than what has gone before. HK - commercial property market, IMHO has hit bottom. I don't see much further decline. Residential sector - still has a way to go down. Implications for stock market - property companies are difficult right now; banking sector - probably at bottom and likely to rise. There'll be some big writeoffs and a lot of M&A in that sector. Redchips, H shares etc - the better ones will survive; the rest will go down. Zhu has probably achieved his aims in Guangdong Province making everyone aware that they should look at fundamental risk and management before lending. I don't think they'll abandon too many more big companies though. Everyone is very pessimistic at the moment - maybe we're at the Rockerfeller "blood in the streets" stage - i.e. time to start buying??? Turnover however is way down.