From Vectorvest.com on DELL
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Stock Analysis of Dell Computer
Thank you for requesting an analysis of Dell Computer from VectorVest
ProGraphics. The ticker symbol for Dell Computer is DELL. DELL is traded on the
NASDAQ and options are available on this stock.
PRICE: DELL closed on 03/18/1999 at $42.25 per share.
VALUE: DELL has a Value of $28.1 per share. Value is the foundation of the
VectorVest system. It is a measure of what a stock is currently worth. Value is
based upon earnings, earnings growth rate, dividend payments, dividend growth
rate, and financial performance. Current interest and inflation rates also play an
important role in the computation of Value. When interest and/or inflation rates
decrease, Value goes up. When interest rates and inflation increase, Value goes
down. Sooner or later a stock's Price and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): DELL has an RV of 1.53. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an
RV of 1.53 is excellent. RV reflects the long-term price appreciation potential of the
stock compared to an alternative investment in AAA Corporate Bonds. Stocks
with RV ratings above 1.00 have attractive upside potential. A stock will have an
RV greater than 1.00 when its Value is greater than Price, and its Relative Safety
(see below) and forecasted earnings growth rate are above average. In some
cases, however, a stock's RV will be above 1.00 even though its Value is well
below Price. This happens when a stock has an exemplary record of financial
performance and an above average earnings growth rate. In this case, the stock is
currently selling at a premium, and the investor is banking on future earnings
growth to drive the stock's price higher. This information is very useful not only
in knowing whether or not a stock has favorable price appreciation potential, but
it also solves the riddle of whether to buy high growth, high P/E, or low growth,
low P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently achieve above
average capital gains in the stock market.
RS (Relative Safety): DELL has an RS rating of 1.4. On a scale of 0.00 to
2.00, an RS of 1.4 is excellent. VectorVest looks at safety from the viewpoint of an
equity investor (one who is buying stock of a company) rather than that of a
purchaser of debt (one who is lending money to the company). From this
perspective, consistency of financial and operating performance, stock price
appreciation history, and price volatility are the key factors used in the evaluation
of Relative Safety (RS). Debt to equity ratio, capitalization, sales volume, business
longevity and other factors are also considered, but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are rated on a scale
of 0.00 to 2.00. A stock with an RS greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable
than the average of all stocks. A stock with an RS less than 1.00 is less
predictable and riskier than the average stock.
RT (Relative Timing): DELL has an RT rating of 1.06. On a scale of 0.00 to
2.00, an RT of 1.06 is fair. RT is a fast, responsive, short-term price trend indicator.
It analyzes the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price behavior
over the last 13 weeks; then reflects and projects the short-term price performance
of the stock. Once a stock's Price has established a strong trend, it is expected to
continue that trend for the short-term. If the trend dissipates, RT will gravitate
towards 1.00. Should the price change dramatically, RT will notice the crucial
turning point. When warranted, it will explode from a Price low and dive from a
Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00,the stock's Price
is in an uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock's Price is in a downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): DELL has a VST-Vector rating of 1.34. On a scale of
0.00 to 2.00, an VST of 1.34 is excellent. VST-Vector solves the dilemma of
balancing Value, Safety and Timing. Stocks with high RV values often have low
RS values, or stocks withlow RV and RS values have high RT's. How can we find
the stocks with the best combinations of Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares) handles this
problem. It combines a set of forces into a single indicator for ranking every stock
in the VectorVest database. Stocks with the highest VST-Vector have the best
combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the ones to own for above
average capital application.
GRT (Growth Rate): DELL has a GRT of 33 % per year. This is excellent.
GRT stands for forecasted Earnings Growth Rate in percent per year. GRT is
updated each week for every stock. Watch GRT trends very carefully. If the GRT
trend is up, the stock's Price will likely rise. If the GRT trend is down, the stock's
Price will increase more slowly, cease to increase, or subsequently fall.
Recommendation (REC): DELL has a Hold recommendation. REC
reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together.
These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks
which are rising in price, and to avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks which are
falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's price is
approximately 10% above a recent low, and an "S" signal when the stock's price is
approximately 10% below a recent high. High RV, RS stocks are favored toward
receiving "B" REC's, and sheltered from receiving "S" RECs.
STOP-PRICE: DELL has a Stop-Price of 38.40 per share. This is 3.85 or 9.1%
belowits current closing Price. VectorVest analyzes over 6,000 stocks each day for
Value, Safety and Timing, and calculates a Stop-Price for each stock. These
Stop-Prices are based upon 13 week moving averages of closing prices, and are
fine-tuned according to each stock's fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H" recommendation if its price
is above its Stop-Price, and an "S" recommendation if its price is below its
Stop-Price.
DIV (Dividend): DELL does not pay a dividend. VectorVest focuses on
annual, regular, cash dividends indicated by the most recent disbursement.
Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., generally are not
included in Dividend (DIV).
DY (Dividend Yield): DELL has a DY of 0 percent. This is above the
current market average of percent. DY equals 100 x (DIV/PRICE), and is expressed
as a percentage.
EY (Earnings Yield): DELL has an EY of 1.91%. This is above the current
market average of %. EY equals 100 x (EARNINGS PER SHARE/PRICE), and is
expressed as a percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): DELL has an EPS of $0.81 per share. EPS
stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. VectorVest determines this
forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal
and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): DELL has a P/E ratio of 52.36. This ratio
is computed daily based upon Price and EPS. P/E = Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): DELL has a GPE of 0.63. This ratio
suggests that This ratio suggests that DELLis overvalued. Growth to P/E ratio is a
popular measure of stock valuation which compares Earnings Growth Rate (GRT)
to Price Earnings ratio (P/E). A stock is considered to be undervalued when GPE
is greater than 1.00, and vice-versa. VectorVest believes that RV is a much better
indicator of long-term value. The RV of 1.53 for DELLis excellent.
DS (Dividend Safety): DELL has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0 to 99, a DS of 0
is poor. DS is defined as the assurance that regular cash dividends will be
declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. Stocks
with DS values above 50 on a scale of 0 to 99 areabove average in safety.
RISK (Dividend Risk): DELL does not pay a dividend. All stocks in the
VectorVest system that pay dividends are classified as having Low, Medium or
High Dividend Risk (RISK). Stocks with DS values above 50 are above average in
safety. These stocks are classified as having LOW or MEDIUM RISK. Stocks
with DS values below 50 are below average in safety and are classified as having
HIGH Risk.
DG (Dividend Growth): DELL has a DG of 0 percent per year. Dividend
Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's historical financial
performance and the board's current outlook on the future use of funds.
YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): DELL has a
YSG-Vector of 0. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an YSG-Vector rating of 0 is very poor.
VectorVest combines Dividend YIELD, SAFETY and GROWTH into a single
parameter. YSG-Vector allows direct comparison of all dividend paying stocks.
Stocks with the highest YSG-Vector values have the best combinations of
Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above
average current income and long-term growth.
VOL(100)s: DELL traded 23418000 shares on 03/18/1999.
AVG VOL(100)s: DELL has an Average Volume of 52563460. Average
Volume is 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest.
% VOL: DELL had a Volume change of -55.5% from its 50 day moving average
volume.
OPEN: DELL opened trading at $42.50 per share on 03/18/1999.
HIGH: DELL traded at a high of $42.81 per share on 03/18/1999.
LOW: DELL traded at a low of $41.94 per share on 03/18/1999.
CLOSE: DELL Closed trading at $42.25 per share on 03/18/1999.
% PRC: DELL showed a Price change of -1.6% from the prior day's closing
price.
INDUSTRY: DELLhas been assigned to the Computer (Mini\Micro) Group.
VectorVest classifies stocks into over 190 Industry Groups and 50 Business
Sectors.
DELL has well above average safety with well above average upside potential. It
reflects a stock which is likely to give well above average, quite consistent returns
over the long term.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy low risk, high reward stocks. We
suggest that Prudent investors buy enough high Relative Value, high Relative
Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and RS ratings of their portfolios above 1.00.
As you do this, you'll find that your risk will go down and your investment
performance will improve. Not a bad combination.
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