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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rolla Coasta who wrote (2754)	3/18/1999 1:33:00 PM
From: Tom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

Hello, Ernest. I haven't read the piece that speaks to a possibility of "bombers" being deployed; but all the major powers are constantly reviewing information of this and many other types while in the constant process of reviewing and constructing probabilities and policies. It is also for the way our U.S. government was constituted that such material filters through multiple levels of review and determination. My personal opinion is that the U.S. has no intention "to strike anywhere in Asia." Current policy has, instead, much to do w/ interrupting something that Western strategists call a conflict spiral. The circumstances that now exist are, never-the-less, much as I have put them in an earlier post. I agree with you, Ernest, when you say, "The PRC has absolutely no reason to expand the country or show aggression." Lee Kuan Yew spoke on this matter in 1997. I'm unable to find, just now, the exact date or location, but Mr. Lee concentrated on economies and trade. He stated that, should the PRC find itself in a situation where they can not access foreign markets and capital, that "China will do what they have always done. They will grow bigger." You see, it is the PRC that requires the resources and not the U.S. And my own feeling, once again, is that the many Western enterprises who believe they will reap a great bounty conducting business within the PRC suffer from the grandest of delusions. Better they should look at Brazil. About Taiwan: No doubt, the great majority of us hope for good success from the Cross-Straits negotiating. I am, however, concerned over policy conflicts in Beijing. I have posted here over the last couple of years whenever I find an instance of my concern. It emanates, I am told, from a nationalist element within the CCP which still carries considerable, and in some cases pivotal, influence. The same element, or group, is also the policy determinant for PLA forces. As far as "U.S. involvement causing more problems in the region," I really don't believe you would want a Western Pacific void of a U.S. presence right now; even though I am all for withdrawing completely. It would, never-the-less, be an opportunity to witness spiraling conflict. Interesting, too, is the Japanese perspective on such issues. Where U.S. forces are concerned; it would be incorrect to assume that the deployment and tactics of our forces in the Western Pacific will for the remainder of my lifetime look at all similar, in complexion or composition, to anything in the past. Finally, and in light of recent and ongoing PLA activities, I might post a few select "right-wing" and highly irresponsible remarks emanating from Zhongnanhai. It would, after all, be only fair. Yet, you see, it is not my purpose to create conflict or mischief. -----