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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (43982)	3/18/1999 9:28:00 PM
From: PAinvestor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Rate of capex growth is definitely not high enough to get capex back to levels that are required in order to stave of the supply shortfall we are entering. We should probably see capex rise 30% or so next year, however as supply tightens, but for this year global capex growth will probably remain subdued (below 10%). The table in the article highlights how large the decline in Japanese capex has hit overall global capex. I'd prefer it if my source remained anonymous. The main point however is that even with slight growth this year and a 30% rise in the following year, we will still be below capex levels that we saw in 1997 which will suppress bit supply growth - and bit demand is still growing at 70-80%. Personally, I agree that the AMATs of the world are over-extended currently. I don't think overall DRAM spending will regain levels that were seen in 1996-97 for a long time.