Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flatsville who wrote (4764)	3/18/1999 4:58:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

Flats, I believe they were trying to say that there are 4 to 5 days of excess oil in inventory than is generally considered normal. That means some 10 million barrels more than normal capacity, I believe. That does not take into account strategic reserves held by the US gov't in those salt mines down south. Regards, Ron

To: flatsville who wrote (4764)	3/18/1999 10:23:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

The United States has a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that holds 564 million barrels, about a 55-day supply of imported oil. That is a significant amount, although less than the 90-day supply of imported oil the SPR originally was intended to hold. api.org From the following link, EXCLUDING the SPR, US crude oil stocks were some 330 million barrels in February. oil-gasoline.com Hardly a mere 7 days worth of "just in time" production as your comments seem to imply. U.S. petroleum imports (crude & products) in February were 10,627,000 barrels per day (b/d); imports in the same month last year were 9,577,000 (b/d). (API). Total petroleum products delivered to the domestic market in February 19,104,000 b/d; same month last year 18,322,000 b/d. (API). So before anyone thinks we're about to run our oil stocks dry due to Y2K, it helps to know how much is sitting in day storage. 330 million barrels equate to roughly 18 days of crude oil available minus the SPR containing 55 days worth. The issue will be how many of the approx 150 US refineries will be shut down or forced to operate at a reduced capacity. I cannot fathom the prospect that all refineries will be non-functional on Jan 1st, 2000 given the statements that have been made to date by the American Petroleum Institute. These public statements will come back to haunt them terribly in post-2000 litigation should they have deliberately misled the public and gov't officials. Flatsville, there is basically nothing that any of us can do except to be as prepared as possible as possible for the winter. Should there be a energy shortage, well... some of us have seen long fuel lines and high prices before and are still around to talk about it. I'm not in denial, Flatsville. I'm merely fatalistic about Y2K and unwilling to worry myself to death pondering the infinite possibilitis about all the things that can go wrong. Regards, Ron

To: flatsville who wrote (4764)	3/19/1999 4:01:00 AM
From: Ken	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Flatsville (I have to get used to this name!): You are another one who has a good reasoning mind- it is a pleasure for me to have discourse with you! When you mentioned oil being JIT-- are you aware of the changes in the strategic national reserve compared to 1-2 decades ago? I believe there have been 2 recent plans to increase the amounts.......but, it does not matter.....the increased amount in reserve will be still be FAR too little...it will still be measured in additional weeks....maybe a couple of months....far, far too little....think of disruptions in terms of months...indefintely! OPEC is/will be decreasing production...then dramatically, as they realize the potential impact of y2k ! Doesn't it seem logical that they will hold out for FAR HIGHER PRICES WHEN DEMAND SPIKES UP DUE TO Y2K DISRUPTIONS! Then, it will be every oil-producting country for itself! For example, 2-5 (assume all 5) Venezulan refineries will be shut down, (there alone goes 15% of our oil imports- finito!) thus Nigeria or Saudi Arabia, e.g., will see 70s levels profits obtainable again as the demand /supply ratio will skew the opposite way! However, they may instead calculate a 'sell it or lose it' necessity, in the fall/winter, which would argue for the reverse! (depending on their ability to calculate the forward AND backward cascading effects)... There are a number of permutations, that makes an obvious senario extremely difficult at this time. Overall, look for a gigantic spike in prices, nothwithstanding the contra-forces in both directions, but, at minimum, the US must, must, must be prepared with emergency plans to exist on the less than 50% produced here that we use. Further, forget Alaskan oil- one hour of the pipeline freezing (anyone think about how chip problems will affect that?), and goodby Alaskan oil....indefinately..... PREDICTIONS: 1. initially, little, and that decreasing thru time, imported oil reaching US, via our own non-comp ports....,and 2. rationing plans to be implemented- if any gas ends up at the non-comp pumps, at service stations that will be closed due to grid disruptions....i.e., those not bankrupt due to banking being down.. and, assuming cars have enough in their tanks to reach them, and don't have accidents due to multiple accidents at any/all major intersections where traffic lites will be frozen at red, green...if still running.....point made yet, or should I go on with the cascading effects? well, appears I am predicting, best case...rationed gas to consumers of an amount and at prices that would discourage anyone but the wealthiest, and bravest drivers....and, those with utter necessity of immediate transport! Anyone around during the gas and tire rationing days of WWII? Those days will seem extravagant re: auto fuel, compared to the y2k version of gas rationing! And, they didn't have to worry about non-comp traffic lites! Ken