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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MARK C. who wrote (18169)	3/18/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: MrThesp	Respond to of 90042

Piper Jaffrey gave a strong buy rating To EGGS. Twelve month target of 28. (That's about 28 minutes for an Inet) Currently at 19 1/2

To: MARK C. who wrote (18169)	3/18/1999 12:04:00 PM
From: Jon Cave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90042

Oil/Gas stocks OPEC has agreed to a 2mbd barrel cut. It has been in the news for about a week. Analysts were skeptic that they might not follow thru with the cuts. But Saudi contacted suppliers yesterday and said they would be reducing their ouput by 500,000 barrels per day. That is what got the oil market going yesterday and today. Follow thru by the Saudi's means serious business. The Asia markets are recovering very well at the moment. Look for Oil to hit $18 per barel by the end of the year. I do not recommend buying right at the moment. Buy oil stocks on a pullback. I copied the following from a message that I sent to a friend about a month ago. Oil stocks I like are: GIFI - fabricator - very good earnings. Expected to get a new contract for a module that Texico dropped in the watter. When that contract is announced should move up about 20%. Great long term hold. FRIEDE GOLDMAN (FGI) - fabricator - record earnings recently, backlog increasing to over 500 mil, new 140 million contract not figured into backlog yet. This was a $40 stock at the first of the year. It earns more now then it did then. It will rock when oil comes back into fashion. Buy it under 11. It is a slow mover though. This a must have. VERITAS DGC (VTS) - sesmic leader - $3.42 in cash. not sure how good current earnings are. Book at around 15. Important business to make oil cheaper. TRANSOCEAN OFFshore - (RIG) - The number one deep water driller in the world. Earnings expected to grow next year even in current environment. They can drill stuff no body else can. Good rough water driller in the North sea. Deepwater is where most people expect the most growth to come from. Favorite for day traders. This sucker moves fast when people are buying oil stocks. PETRO GEO (PGO) - sesmic - just had record revenues. That was good enough for me. I own 1 k shares. Will buy more on dips. They are trying to be the sesmic company for deep water. DIAMOND OFFSHORE (DO) - how many drillers do you know that have 500 million in the bank? This one does. The lowest cost driller. They keep their costs down. Good deepwater driller. R&B FALCON CORP (FLC) - one of the largest drilling fleets in the world. Still making money. But, they have huge dept. Book is about $5. If oil prices go up and stay, this sucker will return the biggest percentage of any oil stock I know of. Huge. But risky. Could trade below book if market don't recover. This sucker was at $30 last year. Deepwater is supposedly where the experts say the biggest growth will occur in the next few years. Lots of exploration wells in deepwater that are good and will have lots of deepwater drilling in the future to produce. Anything that makes oil cheaper to produce has got to be a good bet. Technology. If oil prices remain at this level for another year, then deepwater drillers will drop like a rock. They have long contracts and they will have to start renewing them. Also expect natural gas prices to rise. One of the best natual gas plays for the next two or three years is PZE. Here is message copied from SI about PZE. PZE is currently at 11. It will not move fast. It is for a long term hold. Andrew, PZE is my favorite E&P because it is so undervalued (I currently own only PZE and GIFI in the Oil Patch). The Chairman (Pate) is the "genius" that turned down an $84/share offer by UPR in 1997 for Pennzoil (equivalent to $60 for PennzEnergy) because he said it was worth $100/share. However, he did us recent investors a favor because IMO PZE is hugely undervalued!! PZE's two top operating officers came on board in 1997 - their President, Chesebro, came from Tenneco Energy where he was Chairman and President. Since Chesebro came on board, Pennzoil spun off their Quacker State/Jiffy Lube operations, leaving PZE solely an E&P company. This unlocks value (investors understand a focused company better), stops the Quacker State earnings drain, and improves the balance sheet by reducing debt (which is still high). He also formed partnerships to significantly grew PZE's overseas reserves in oil and gas (Petrobras partnership in Brazil is latest). They now have reserves in Azerbaijian, Egypt, Venezuela, Australia. Chesebro is implementing a cost-cutting program this year and reduced capex by 40% from 1998. Last quarter they had a big loss with many extraordinary charges (e.g., due to restructuring). PZE's price has plummeted from 16 on December 31, 1998 when the Quacker State operations were spun off to around 9. It has since recovered to 10 3/4. Susan Byrne (the brilliant Westwood Capital fund manager) estimates that PZE is worth $39. Michael Price selected PZE as his long-term pick in Worth Magazine's February issue and states that PZE could be $50 to $60 in a few years. With higher oil prices, no Quacker State/Jiffy Lube, and reduced expenses, IMO PZE's earnings should really take off (I analyzed their proforma statements for combined company and estimate that PZE would have earned $3.33/share in 1997 as a stand-alone company). When this occurs, the street will recognize how undervalued it is. My analysts is worth what you paid for. Just about zero. Good luck. Love this thread. Long PAIR In/Out Fore - depends on the time of day <g> Long Oil/gas stocks