To: Rainy_Day_Woman who wrote (6692 ) 3/18/1999 11:25:00 AM From: X Y Zebra Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21876
My own opinion of insider trades is that at best it is difficult to really assess the value of these trades, for various reasons. In the case of "sales"... Many of the directors or executives of the companies in question have a large percentage of their net worth tied up to the company stock, therefore, when they have a personal need to use large amounts of cash, as in buying/building a home, pay for college for their children, and the like. In many instances, these converted warrants, options, or straight sale of stock, reflect long held positions that have large paper profits.... at some point, one would assume that they would like to "cash in" in their position, regardless of what the future of the company may be, or potentially become. You can't blame them for this, as otherwise, to have the paper wealth and never enjoy it, makes little sense. Unless you are like my Uncle Scrooge McEvil... in his vocabulary, the word "sell" does not exist. In the case of "buys". Perhaps this could be a more significant event, but then again, we do not know if some of those "buys" were motivated by a large inheritance, or the sale of other major asset, or the like.... nevertheless, a general consensus that insiders are buying their own stock, I believe is more significant than "sales" ..... The only exception would be a large, wholesale selling by most insiders... then perhaps, it is time to say, "a rat smells...." I do not think that in Lucent's case, this last scenario is likely to apply. Having said that, it never hurts to be aware of what the insiders are up to, provided the correct weight is given to these figures, in terms of the whole picture. and of course... all of the above is only my opinion.