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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (53895)	3/18/1999 12:02:00 PM
From: Steven N	Respond to of 97611

cbs.marketwatch.com sn

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (53895)	3/18/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: Bura	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 97611

I was disappointed that in the annual report there was no mention of the difficulties faced in the first half of 1998. I own some shares in CPQ that I bought back in 1995 (ACB of 8) but I have been lightening up in the past few years, since the company has been using accounting gimmicks (since Earl's been CFO) like selling receivables, leaking pre-announcements, stuffing the channel, using DEC addition to show large revenue gains late 98. If they manage to pull off the quarter (which may be wishful thinking) they may use some more gimmicks (low tax rate, reversing accruals). However, I've bought 2 Apr 32.5 call, since upside is better than downside. Different scenarios: If they even come close (and even with weak revenues) this stock will bounce up 4 to 5 bucks at least. If they somehow (unlikely) beat estimates, this stock could rocket up to the 40s easily. If this thing rallies, I'm selling (sadly since I've owned this stock for almost 4 years and it's made me a lot of money) as its business is getting worse (lower margins, lower growth) and the recent preannouncement leak made me sick to my stomach. If they earn 20 c, Earl is history (EP could be too since CPQ has outside directors- remember that's how EP made it) March Q 96 and 98 have had preannouncement early in the month, so hopefully, they won't do one this time.