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Strategies & Market Trends : The Round Table: A work by the squares of the SNDK thread. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: phoenix who wrote (74)	3/18/1999 11:13:00 PM
From: Bill Zeman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 194

Roger The US steel market has been dead and dying for years now hasn't it? I was under the impression that it was like the TV and stereo market: permanently dominated by foreigners from now on. What makes you think with surety, it will ever come back? If they are loosing all their business, then even their low PE and dividend become suspect. The long term chart seems to BEAR, (nice pun, huh?) out my sentiments. Looks like a long steady decline into oblivion. quote.yahoo.com Bill Zeman

To: phoenix who wrote (74)	3/21/1999 8:05:00 AM
From: Ausdauer	Respond to of 194

Roger, Regarding NS... I think you found an interesting stock here, although I would never have imagined considering a steel producer. You are recommending a pure value play here. Sort of a "dog-of-the-Dow" approach, if you will. It is almost as enticing as kissing your Grandma on the lips. The problem I have is that one would assume demand for steel would be extremely high currently, yet NS has seen decreasing earnings attributed to weak steel prices and a previously reported one time gain that artificially propped up prior quarter's earnings. Our local paper had an article this weekend stating that there is a shortage of dry wall nationally. It seems reasonable to assume that construction and automobile manufacturing are high levels currently. Some of my patients work at a local Ford plant and they are routinely asked to do overtime. It has become an expectation. In order to feel comfortable in NS you have to have a sense of where the market is going with respect to steel prices and demand for this commodity. I have never invested in a cyclical stock before, so I am uncomfortable in making this determination. It seems unlikely that the stock price can go much lower at this point as it appears to have hit rock bottom at around 5 dollars a share. Has the company recently bought back stock? I think that would be another barometric reading on the stocks possible performance in the foreseeable future. Also, watch what you say about the Japanese. The CEO is Japanese! You left that out in your analysis!!! Ausdauer

To: phoenix who wrote (74)	3/21/1999 8:21:00 AM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 194

Roger and Thread, I think we need to have a format for posting a new stock to the board. Thereafter, discussion can be a bit less structured (but within the guidelines mentioned in my originating post). I recommend the following... IDENTIFYING INFORMATION Company Name Stock Ticker Valuation (share price, shares outstanding, market cap) INVESTMENT THESIS Short paragraph on company's business and the industry segment it is involved in. COMPANY PERFORMANCE earnings (total revenues, earnings, gross/net margins, earnings growth rate...) balance sheet (debt ratio) cash flow VALUE MEASUREMENTS PE PE/G P/S P/B WHY YOU LIKE THE COMPANY Editorial comments or other information felt essential to understanding the investment thesis. MISCELLANEOUS Recent press releases, partnerships, insider trading,... I think if we all follow a somewhat structured approach at first that people will show more interest in doing their own research or offering supportive/countervailing opinions. Ausdauer

To: phoenix who wrote (74)	4/26/1999 8:28:00 AM
From: Ausdauer	Respond to of 194

Roger, I read a brief article on cyclicals a few weeks ago. The ideal time for buying these stocks is after there is overproduction and a fall in the price of a particular commodity (steel in this instance) that makes it cheaper to leave the raw materials (ore) in the ground. Then, as demand rises and price appreciates (relative shortages) these companies ramp up production and rake in the cash. The stock price tends to peak somewhere midway into the ensuing growth cycle, at which point you are supposed to bail. Overproduction and a fall in cost usually follows. The cycle starts over again. Right now there is demand for steel, yet falling prices. Part of the world is in economic distress, while others are flourishing. I really don't know how to play the steel or cyclicals in general, so I plan to pass on NS. Ausdauer