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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (46354)	3/18/1999 5:28:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Jan, >> Hope that you are doing Ok or fine. Sold my long amzn too early. Shorted 100 at 139. This is the third time amzn runs past 139 in a week. Each previous time it goes back to 130. What is the big deal this time ? We've been saying it will make round trips from 120's to 140 and back. It already made 2. Is this the start of the 3rd or a trip to the moon ?

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (46354)	3/19/1999 8:25:00 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

U.S. corp profit recovery seen continuing in Q1 By Cal Mankowski NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - Higher energy prices and an improved outlook for the technology sector should help first quarter earnings recover from the depressed levels seen last year, analysts said. The problems plaguing the industry last year included a strong dollar, difficult comparisons with the prior year, high inventories of personal computers and a difficult pricing environment for semiconductors. "All of these things are better now," said Arnold Berman, managing director for the Soundview Technology Group. He added that the recovery first became evident in the third quarter of 1998. For the first quarter of 1999, analysts are projecting 6.4 percent year-over-year earnings gains for the Standard & Poor's 500 stocks, according to First Call, which tracks the estimates. Earnings growth was 6.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 1998, which was the best quarter of the year. Henry Herrmann, chief investment officer at Waddell & Reed Asset Management Co., expects technology companies to have good first-quarter earnings reflecting a recovery in the hard goods segment such as personal computers and semiconductors. Other areas that look good for the first quarter include consumer durables and, in particular, autos and also health care, telecommunications and retail, with the latter benefiting from an earlier Easter. Looking beyond the first quarter, industry analysts see further improvement in the second quarter and much better growth in the second half of 1999, a scenario that some are questioning. "We're very skeptical about big second-half gains that industry analysts are looking for," said Chuck Hill, research director at First Call. He notes that, since Asia's economic crisis began to unfold in 1997, analysts have lowered earnings forecasts quarter by quarter while remaining unduly optimistic about subsequent periods. Hill said the optimistic estimates for the second half are doubly worrisome because investors are placing a very lofty valuation on the forecast earnings. Currently, stock prices are close to 27 times expected earnings, a premium that is 50 percent higher than previous valuation peaks seen in 1968 and 1991. Herrmann believes operating profits for the S&P 500 companies will be up about five percent for the year, a far cry from the double digit growth rate seen in the mid 90s. "Low inflation is hurting everybody," he said, referring to the impact on profits. "Nobody has any pricing power." Edward Keon, director of quantitative analysis for Prudential Securities, expects earnings growth in the seven to eight percent range for 1999 followed by a return to double digit growth in the year 2000. Taking a longer perspective, Keon sees significant problems emerging later on. "The year 2000 may be remembered for a decade as the last great year for the stock market," he wrote in Prudential Securities's annual review titled FutureShocks 1999. "Our projections suggest that, by the end of that year, earnings momentum will finally hit the valuation wall and price/earnnigs ratios will stop expanding for the market as a whole." As for the upcoming round of first-quarter results that begin in early April, Wall Street will be anxiously waiting for any pre-announcements in which companies alert investors that expectations are too high or too low. With technology stocks accounting for some 20 percent of market capitalization, too many negative surprises in that segment would have a major impact on the overall market. Berman said there are still signs of slowness in some personal computer makers, their disk drive suppliers and some enterprise software companies. But the communications, semiconductors and semiconductor equipment segments are likely to be among the best performers. He noted that the first quarter is generally the slowest for the industry overall with big corporate custome...