Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wlheatmoon who wrote (52532)	3/18/1999 7:18:00 PM
From: KJ. Moy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

MKC, <<1. what do you see as the earnings outlook? earnings took a beating last year.>> I see that they are going to break even or actually turn a profit by 4Q. The CEO answered one of the fund manager at a tech conference that Ancor possibly will break even as early as the 4Q. This CEO has been very conservative in any forward looking statements. << 2. who are their primary customers?>> They try to sell to large computer/storage companies which would integrate Ancor's products (primarily Fibre Channel switches) into a solution package. They also sell to individual companies such as Boeing, IBM Global Services, Sun, Hwp, etc. The term 'OEM'( original equipment manufacturer) is commonly used when products are integrated by large companies and sold under their own names. Ancor has won 5 OEMs( with some smaller companies) the last 3 months, and more are on the way (hopefully some household names) << 3. who are their primary competitors?>>> A private company called Brocade I consider their primary competitors. Others are, Vixel (private), McData (private), there are a few others. Ancor has about 18 months technological lead over their competitors. This is coming from management and industry insiders and me . <<4. what does their balance sheet look like? do they have money for R&D and for growth?>> They have about $8M by the end of March. This is my estimate. They haven't filed their 10-Q for 4Q of 1998 yet. They had $3.9M at the end of 3Q 1998. They lost $1.3M last quarter. They received $3M from Inrange(a company they also OEM with) last quarter and scheduled to receive another $3M by the end of March. Their burn rate is about $1M per month with 0 revenue. Yes, they are big on R & D and has been able to retain most of their top notch engineers. <<< 5. how big is the projected market for Fibre channel and what the hell is a Fibre channel?>>> IDC (a credible data source) projected a $10B (yes billion) Fibre Channel market in 2000. The market Ancor in is about $500M in 2000.My current estimate for Ancor range from $80M to $200M in 2000. Fibre Channel is a channel/Networking protocol created in mid-1980s to allow faster access from computer to peripherals(i.e. computer to storage devices and workstations). Most large storage and computer companies are endorsing FC as their new products because of its robustness and flexibility. << 6. why did you guys ride it from 40 to 1? >>> Stupidity, I guess. The main reason why it went to 1 was the bottomless convertible preferred stocks. But, it is over now. Ancor shares count went from 12M to 25M during that stretch. <<7. who is the CEO and can he make this thing fly? >> Ken Hendricksen. He came from Western Digital. He was hand picked by the founder when the ex-CEO angered many investors. He put a good lid on news leaks. He is always conservative in forward looking statements. It is us individual investors are doing the hyping all the time. Yes, I do think he can make it fly and the wait won't be long either. Another problem is that Ancor only listed under small cap listing. IMO they will apply soon if not already to the Nasdaq. There are practically no analyst following, no institution ownership. KJ