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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bretsky who wrote (110129)	3/18/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Bretsky- Got to disagree with you...April should be a good month.... First of all, end of March...money managers are going to be putting their money back to work in the next 10 days....Don't want to be fat cash when those statements go out... Japanese money returns come April 1st...Bond market also going to perk up due to lack of issues and gvt. funding (supply) going to be cut way back....barring some unforeseen inflation statistic (unlikely), bond market should at worse, tread water, and more likely, trend down to 5.25% or lower during April.......Also weighing on the bond market...AT &T (biggest ever) bond issue next week... Oil has had quite a run in the last few weeks...Almost everyone expects a pullback soon...this will help support the bond market as well in the coming weeks... Also, Fed meeting in the next couple weeks...if Fed does not change bias...this will help bond market quite a bit....even if bias is changed towards tightening...with no hike (impossible, in my view)..this will add balast to the bond market.. Bond market being healthy key to big-cap tech stocks like Dell... The news can not possibly get much worse for PC cos...and upside surprise seems more likely for this quarter here on out, IMO...Kumar says Compaq "only" to earn 20 cents...the stock was down, but did not crater today...Dell neither...these stocks have been beaten up pretty bad here...but traders (and many investors) have short memories.. In April, Dell has their analyst meeting (2nd week in NY)...We should be hearing comforting news out this...Compaq has its shareholders meeting and a bi-annual meeting for many of its top customers...For sure, after all the negativity, Compaq will be trotting out some good PR (don't ask me what...)...By April, it will be clear what the real numbers for PC sales for 1Q were...and it is likely that the "seasonally-slow" view will win consensus...Right now, I think all the PC stocks are priced for something worse than that.. Intel's numbers coming out 2/3rd week in April....If Intel does not warn (doesnt look likely)...this will help PC stocks quite a bit...Looks possible that Compaq will not warn either...If they somehow make .33....then things certainly will look better for all (PC stocks)...even if they miss (and Intel makes)...Dell should do fine....many will see that Dell is taking the extra sales... One hitch could be IDC numbers at end of April....Because weak January is included, Dell's % y-o-y could look worse than it actually is...but, the smart money might see thru this anyway... Also, in the current rally, many other stocks have rallied (quite a bit) in the last couple weeks...I think that PC (tech) stocks will take back leadership soon..they are still quite a bit off their highs....a lot of these companies are simply growing too fast for big money to stay out of them too long...... For me, the most likely scenario is a similiar earnings run (to what we usually see in Dell) followed by a pullback after earnings (in May)....historically weak period for techs...and, by them, the inflation hawks will gather themselves with another round of arguments probably based on some sort of gvt. data...

To: Bretsky who wrote (110129)	3/18/1999 8:52:00 PM
From: SirVinny	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Bretsky, I'm of the same opinion. DELL will stagnate at this level until mid-May. The big guys are waiting for a sign. Was last quarter's earnings an anomaly or was it an actual downturn in the PC industry??? Many will not venture the risk. There will be further turmoil in April with CPQ reporting. If there is any truth in what I have read, CPQ will fall short again. This will greatly affect DELL since many will once again project CPQ's shortfall to the rest of the industry. My stubbornness is keeping me in DELL. But if I view this objectively, I should be investing my money elsewhere and only return to DELL in May. I can probably pick it up at the same price then. Stubbornly yours, SirVinny