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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (26191)	3/18/1999 9:58:00 PM
From: IceShark	Respond to of 86076

Would you boyz knock it off on physics? It's all crap as a Nobel prize winner that has great experience in making money disappear will tell you. -g- What are those crazy Asians up to now? Down 3% one day, up 3 the next ... tomorrow should be fun here ....

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (26191)	3/18/1999 11:49:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles update for Thursday, March 18, 1999. The most important factor that argues against an immediate downside resolution now, is the fact that the Dow remains well above the 17 1/2% envelope above the two year or 506 day moving average. Today the Dow closed 2 1/2% above the upper envelope, and that does not fit in with the late November and early January episode that saw the Dow move above the envelope only three to four days and in neither instance, more than 1.8% above. Perhaps, just perhaps, that relates to an appointment with destiny between the Dow and the 10,000 level, and if the 10,000 level presents as much initial resistance as the 1,000 level did back in 1966 and 1968, perhaps there will be no close above 10,000 here. Right now, however, we must allow for such a close simply because the Dow is so near, and its distance above the envelope argues that the envelope may well become support rather than resistance. The Trading Index numbers are still overbought, with the Simple 10 day at .777 and the Open 10 at .762. That .762 reading on the Open 10 Trading Index is the most overbought reading in 2 1/2 years, and the third most overbought period since this phase of the bull market began in late 1994. We still believe that the most likely scenario remains a pull-back from around these levels and an attempt at these levels in early April, perhaps testing the 10,000 again if we fail to close above it here. That would be similar to the first approach to the 1,000 level on January of 1966. The Dow got above it intra-day on January 18 and 19 for the first time in history, then went sideways to down for around two weeks, then one week later returned to test the 1,000 level unsuccessfully with two more days reaching it on February 9 and 10 intra-day. From that point it did not approach 1,000 for two years and nine months after that. Mutual fund switchers, as a risk protection, on our special update today at around 3:20 ET, we had Rydex switchers exit the Rydex Ursa fund. It was basically because the Dow had remained above the envelope that we spoke about earlier in the update today. We did remain in our Rydex Ursa fund for management. We are going to do that for at least one more day as we watch what unfolds tomorrow with the triple witching and option expiration day. All mutual fund switchers are now in cash. All mutual fund switchers should now call daily for possible changes both evenings and after 3:20 p.m. ET each market day. Stock Index futures traders, you were stopped out of the June S&P at 1324.10 for a loss of $4.10 and we reversed to the long side at 1324.10. Tomorrow, we are going to sell our long positions on any move above 1317.80 by the S&P Cash. That is not that far away, but there is a trendline coming through some prior tops going back to February right around that level, so we are going to exit our long position should the S&P Cash Index reach 1317.00. If that does not occur, and if we get back to the entry price of 1324.10, then we would exit on a move below our entry level of 1324.10. We want you to sell short tomorrow on a break of 1322.70 on the S&P futures with a stop at either 1332.40 or 60 cents above the high of the day at the time of the short sale, whichever of those two is higher. There are no new projections on the XAU or bonds. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow.