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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (7710)	3/18/1999 10:37:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

John, if shipments were not in a slight decline over the last three months, one might think that the BTB actually peaked. What is going on with this recovery? Zeev

To: Q. who wrote (7710)	3/19/1999 9:33:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

John, I suspect your conclusions are seriously flawed. 1. The February number is a preliminary number based upon order / sales info received by the auditor at the cutoff time for issuing the report. It will get adjusted, probably upwards, for the next 2 months and possibly again throughout the year. 2. The reported numbers are "seasonally adjusted". I have never seen a formula for the "adjustment"; thus it's impossible to make any statement about the absolute magnitude of a movement by looking only at one incremental point. I believe the more useful answer will come from the forward looking statements in the conference calls. FWIW, Ian. new BTB data shows that orders have plateaued. In fact, if you back out the 3-month averaging, it shows that orders in Feb. were about the same as in November, since the 3 month average for Feb. is the same as for Jan. So it looks like the recovery is stabilizing. This doesn't look like a V-shaped bottom for the cycle.