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To: Gottfried who wrote (29117)3/19/1999 4:15:00 AM
From: Paul V.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
GottfriedPaul/all, new charts of btb/orders/shipments as well as
AMAT and KLIC price vs orders. SEMI data: semi.org
wpress.nsf Note the similarity in order and shipment trends between
2 years ago and now


Thanks, for your charts. I love to see the similarity. It is what we
thought they would be. Looks good for AMAT and Klic.

Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have
reviewed and compiled from the SEMI site. Readers are reminded the old
saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)."

Following the the spreadsheet of the data:

YEARS AVER. MNTHY MNTHY MNTHLY
MONTH 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 '91-98 STD HGH-DV LW-DEV
JAN 1.23 1.09 1.12 1.17 1.32 1.28 1.08 0.94 1.12 1.15 0.123 1.266 1.034
FEB 1.12 1.2 1.15 1.13 1.41 1.36 1.07 0.9 1.17 1.17 0.151 1.319 1.016
MAR 0.91 1.13 1.12 1.07 1.3 1.15 1.15 0.82 1.08 0.151 1.232 0.93
APR 0.92 1.02 1.18 1.05 1.23 1 1.1 0.78 1.04 0.143 1.178 0.89
MAY 0.93 0.93 1.2 1.02 1.11 0.87 1.09 0.81 0.995 0.133 1.128 0.86
JUN 0.96 0.9 1.22 1.16 1.18 0.87 1.07 0.74 1.01 0.172 1.184 0.84
JLY 0.93 0.92 1.19 1.2 1.08 0.76 1.12 0.65 0.98 0.202 1.183 0.78
AUG 0.92 0.94 1.14 1.21 1.05 0.71 1.1 0.57 0.955 0.22 1.175 0.73
SEPT 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.03 1.02 0.7 1.09 0.57 0.918 0.186 1.102 0.74
OCT 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.12 1.07 0.78 1.05 0.75 0.977 0.14 1.113 0.84
NOV 0.96 1.03 1.05 1.19 1.06 0.9 1.02 0.84 1.01 0.107 1.113 0.9
DEC 0.98 1.08 1.19 1.29 1.15 1.01 0.99 0.97 1.1 0.117 1.2 0.965
YR AV. 9.84 1.019 1.134 1.137 1.165 0.949 1.078 0.78 1.145 1.031 0.152 1.182 0.878
YR SD. 0.096 0.092 0.0685 0.0823 0.1248 0.218 0.43 0.13 0.035 0.76 0.035 0.069 0.99
YR HDV. 1.08 1.111 1.2027 1.219 1.289 1.167 1.12 0.91 1.18 1.11 0.19 1.255 0.98
YR LDV. 0.887 0.926 1.0656 1.054 1.04 0.731 1.035 0.65 1.11 0.954 0.119 1.117 0.78