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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (3504)	3/18/1999 11:43:00 PM
From: Joe Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

No way, Maurice... no ending a post with a "trailing off..." remark about Hula girls (women...persons...?). That's not nice...unless you can link me to them. Thanks for the Innuit poem. I've got a quote for you...from Abraham Lincoln's favorite book, "Oh, Why Should the Spirit of Mortal Be Proud?" : "Oh, why should the spirit of mortal be proud? Like a swift fleeting meteor, a fast-flying cloud, A flash of the lightning, a break of the wave, Man passeth from life to his rest in the grave. The leaves of the oak and the willow shall fade, Be scattered around and together be laid; and the young and the old, and the low and the high, Shall moulder to dust and together shall lie. 'Tis the wink of an eye, 'tis the draught of a breath, From the blossom of health to the paleness of death, From the gilded saloon to the bier and the shroud, - Oh, why should the spirit of mortal be proud?" Seems prophetic that Abe would have loved this poem... and it reminds me that any concerns I have about investments and money are freighted with no more significance than that which a dust-mote attributes to the zephyr that wings it from here to there...

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (3504)	3/18/1999 11:53:00 PM
From: djane	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29987

Valueman excellent valuation analysis of LOR (via LOR thread) [Reposted here because it is so damned good. G* buyout anyone?] Talk : Communications : Loral Space & Communications \| Previous \| Next \| Respond \| Earnings \| To: Rocket Scientist (5507 ) From: Valueman Thursday, Mar 18 1999 11:16PM ET Reply # of 5509 What is Loral worth without G? Right now, the market says it is worth about 12.75. That is roughly $3.7 billion--less than any piece of crap internet company on a bad day. EBITDA will be growing 100%. Is that a reasonable valuation? Let's see--it is common to value SS/L at 1X sales. Why? Probably because all the analysts have done it that way. Is that reasonable? I think not. Let someone try and whip up a world class sat manufacturing business. I dare them to try. The possibility of hiring that many skilled engineers is slim(Ok--money might convince them). Then there's equipment, experience, trust, a track record, etc. that would have to be whipped up as well. Margins are not that great, but that previously-mentioned piece of crap internet company sells at some phenomenal multiple of sales and will never have any profits. Somewhere in between is reality. It is virtually impossible to duplicate SS/L in today's world. It alone is worth the $3.7 billion. What about the FSS services? They should be producing $850 million in EBITDA in 2002. What multiple would you place on that? Ten times? That is common. That gives us $8.5 billion in value in 2002, closing in on $30/share. But wait--why use 10X EBITDA? Because analysts always have. Hold on--10% of the FSS revenues come from internet transmission at this point. QWST is trading at 12X revenues. Should that be our guide? LVLT is at 40X sales. They are merely a conduit for data. Can we use 40X sales then for our internet transmission business? What about Abovenet, mentioned as a possible partner for Orion, and trading at 100X sales. Valuation by association is obviously not a new paradigm principle. MAybe GBLX is more our style, providing transoceanic fiber transmission, similar to Orion 3 providing OzMail a connection to the US backbone. A mere 50X sales there. So, with a data business slated to do $80 million this year, Orion should thus be worth $4 billion. That is excluding its run-of-the-mill FSS business. There we go! Are we over 12.75/share yet? Should our cash flow be any different than cable company cash flows? Why are they worth a 20X+ multiple? How about that last-mile connection valuation. We own roughly 20% of Skybridge here. They want to do one thing--hook up the last mile to the nearest fiber. That's it. Just like @Home, RoadRunner, etc. At Home trades at 300X 98 revenues, or a company value of $15 billion. They have a handful of subscribers in the US, and will be in Canada soon. What does that mean for Skybridge? Skybridge will connect anyone, worldwide at speeds that are 20X cable modems. Is 20% of that worth a few dollars? One would think so. When operational, should Skybridge command a value sufficient enough to make Loral's stake worth more than our current $3.7 billion benchmark? One would think so. Throw in a lottery ticket on CD Radio, a lottery ticket on G, and you've got some potential. Wall Street just doesn't get it. Believe me, I have spoken with many "professionals" and they do not have a clue. Some do, most don't. I guarantee there are other companies doing exactly the same kind of "big picture" analysis as you see here(of course, they would likely be a bit more exact, but hey, I'm winging this). The longer Loral's stock stays depressed, the more likely we get bought out. It is a simple fact. There are very few suitors, as we have discussed before--AT&T, ALA, GE, Boeing, LMT. There may be another list for G, which could easily be sold separately. It does not take too much imagination to see telephone companies interested in all of G. Vodafone comes to mind. Frankly, if an offer for LOR appeared tomorrow, and it was reasonable, my clients would tell me to take it. I can't blame them. It has been 2 to 3 years with little or no return. You can hear the "be a patient long term investor" mantra for only so long. I see the value growing within the company, but it is not making its way to the shareholders. If that value continues to fail to rear its beautiful head, we will be taken out sooner than later, and I will be all for it.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (3504)	3/20/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: JMD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Hi Maurice, as you know, I have been one of the pricing faithful. All posts committed to memory, and a full set of "I Belive Bro, I Believe" chants every night before bed time. It is of considerable significance therefore that I take a moment to comment on your last p*****cing post (number 34,546, but who's counting?) and specifically this moment of rare literary excellence: "Price them at what it takes to move the whole damn lot before they rot!" Now it seems to me that the world could save a whole lot of bandwidth by simply cancelling marketing classes throughout academia and substituting the deep wisdom contained in that single sentence. I attended, and even graduated god help us, from a B-School that is considered to be one of the prime filets. Never could get the drift of all those frigging marketing classes: "put the cereal on the shelf about 36" off the floor so the little nipper will see it and throw a shit fit if mummy doesn't buy a box"--Surfer Mike exits stage left to avoid plotzing in class. The only good thing is that my billiard game improved enormously during that period. How many brains does it take to figure out that the overwhelming majority of folks consider the cost of something extraordinarily important in evaluating whether or not to procure it/utilize it? Are there exceptions? Yes. Are there folks for whom price is no object? Yes. Do the exceptions make one whit of difference when the topic is moving a mass merchandise or mass service off the shelves? No. Now, can we go play golf [because Globalstar's marketing/pricing plan is now done]? Surfer Mike--with huge input from Mqrice.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (3504)	3/21/1999 6:27:00 PM
From: william i smith jr	Respond to of 29987

Maurice- Perhaps the biggest intermediate term negative for G* would be the bankruptcy of Iridium -not because Wall Street would fear the same for G* (which they would), but because of the effect the bankruptcy would have on G* pricing flexibility. If Iridium assets are purchased at $0.30 on the dollar, Iridium minutes suddenly become competitive with G*. Bill

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (3504)	3/30/1999 9:08:00 AM
From: Larry L	Respond to of 29987

Maurice: Sorry but I have been away on business. First of all, I never said that pricing did not matter. What I did say was: to some individuals pricing is not the only consideration. I's problems may include pricing but the biggest ones go far beyond that area. If I has a truly unique product, the only phone company with truly worldwide coverage (the only one with anywhere near worldwide coverage for another 1 1/2 years) then the sales and marketing should be able to push it.