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To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (1079)	3/19/1999 10:06:00 AM
From: Wolf 2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1622

TSO: *OT* All seriousness aside, the "big turn" in the oil market must be something like a year away, wouldn't you think? It will take a while for the emerging market world to get nearly up to former levels of oil consumpion, wouldn't you think?... I agree and because my 'timing' hasn't been all it should be lately, I would be loathe to attempt to forecast the precise point at which all factors converge: 1. If original and additional cuts are actually made, how long will it take to rid ourselves of the inventory overhang? 2.How long after that before oil prices reflect that oil is back to JIT inventory? 3.As demand picks up again in those regions in which consumption dropped off so dramatically last year, will the taps be turned on to compensate? 4.Finally, how far in advance of these events, should they occur, will the market price in their eventuality? Regards, Wolf