To: edamo who wrote (110169 ) 3/19/1999 10:50:00 AM From: JRI Respond to of 176388
edamo- last year, I was researching Dell during the month of March....the stock was dead, dead, dead during late February/March....after topping pre-earnings around 69...(a couple splits ago)...Dell traded between 69-60 from mid-February to early April...then Michael had his analyst meeting in New York (2nd week in April)...the stock went back up to 68.....It took another week for the stock to hit/pass 70.....Before May earnings rolled around, Dell hit 98! I remember buying Dell in early April....for 2 weeks (trading days) the Naz went up....Dell did nothing (like now)....and then, later in the month, as the Naz TRENDED LOWER...Dell started its earning run.. For those who are saying Dell is dead, blah, blah, blah....that really is pre-mature..by the same token, one can not possibly expect the same rate of (annual) return which Dell has acheived over the past couple (ie. 200%)..That would simply be a ludicrous expectation...so, if we start at a lower, more reasonable (really incredibly outstanding return) of 30-40% (from these levels)..that would imply that Dell would have some longer dormant periods each year (given that Dell often was dead for 3/4 months while it was gaining 200% a year)...it would stand to reason that it could very well have longer dormant period with lower rates of return...so I think long-term investors need to learn to have some patience... Having said all of this, let's wait and see what happens 2nd half of this quarter..until then, it is really hard to assume anything about this great company, and its stock's movement...Until today, this quarter's action has been absolutely nothing unusual...It would be nice to be up today, but the reality is that Dell could have easily been down (had we gone back one year/two years in a day like this...in the time period that it is....and that is when Dell was earning 200% p.a....so today means nothing really....) 30-40% p.a. is an outstanding rate of return..folks need to remember that...