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To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (44015)	3/19/1999 9:24:00 AM
From: Greg Jung	Respond to of 53903

I don't want to ponder too hard these days on MU as its price is in the middle of a wide range. However the main point as I recall was that even with the rosiest of assumptions it was highly unlikely for MU to make the projected market share it boasted. And to do attempt to do so would crater the price of DRAMs. My own take on this company is, that it hasn't earned good money since I was buying and selling memory at $120 per 4MB pack. The only positive cash flow that I can see is at the stock pump-n-dump. I'm sure if this shows a $0.10 profit one of these days we will hear calls of great leverage and the stock will rise to $200 as the prophets say. However I have no reason to know it will ever do even that. Greg

To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (44015)	3/19/1999 9:29:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

One factor in the increase in supply recently has been an acceleration in the rate of shrinks. In the recent past DRAM was typically a generation behind CPUs, but now DRAM is closing in or passing CPUs. I believe AMD is still doing production at .25µ while most DRAM is at .21µ. I believe INTC is starting to ramp up .18µ while DRAM makers are simultaneously doing the same. Leading DRAM makers will probably be able to get to .18µ in the next 12 months, but after that I think the one generation a year train is going to come to a halt. I just don't see much chance that 12 months from now the DRAM makers will be partially converted to .15µ. Without the generational change the rate of change in supply will drop substantially, and demand will eventually catch up with supply. I have seen estimates that this will happen in the next 6 months, but it certainly will happen in the next 18 months. And if RDRAM is successful in taking a sizeable portion of the DRAM market, demand will catch supply sooner rather than later. Carl