To: d e conway who wrote (52926 ) 3/19/1999 10:48:00 AM From: DRBES Respond to of 1578938
re: "Selling pressure has abated...volume is down & price has stabilized. Don't you think that those who were gonna sell have already done so? I say we're bottoming out here, and that bad earnings are already discounted." Perhaps, and that is my bet, since my only consideration lately is to add to my position; but (and this is a big but) AMD has shown a frightening capacity over time to disappoint big. They are going to take some potentially large one time losses in the first quarter (to get them out of the way) this is basically good but the market may find it offensive and the stock could sell off severely on the news. Smart money may come in on the buy side and could run the stock up if it materializes in any depth. Smart money is just that, smart, and it may let the stock fall substantially before materializing. This could depend heavily on the conference call and whether any but a few participants develop anything other than the skepticism for what is claimed for the future given AMD's very recent history for PROFOUND misguidance. AS I have implied, I have not sold, but, I have kept my optimism, however, for the near term very restrained. One positive note is that it was Atiq Raza that issued the last warning. I hope that it overstated the negative case, as is the consistent pattern of iNTEL. If this pattern shows a possibility of emerging, it is a significant change and evidence of independence from Jerry and his propensity for always overstating the most positive possible case. Given the recent slew of lawsuits he has good cause to finally shut up. I am not so cynical about Jerry as many of you are; I sincerely believe that he believes what he says and is completely candid in expressing his beliefs. The problem is that he surrounds himself with "yes men", the pessimists are either canned or know to stay away, lest they be fired. He is a salesman, with a big mouth, and should not be allowed to speak publicly even with big disclaimers trailing his announcements. They are not enough. He speaks with hope rather than actual fact and is too slow to announce bad changes when they develop. Sorry to run on so, but I have thought about this seriously for some time now and I suspect that I am close to the true situation as it really does exist. Please comment if you have and thoughts or insights. Regards and Good Luck, DARBES