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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (23763)	3/19/1999 1:07:00 PM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77398

So, what do you think of Fore today? Somebody on this thread suggested you buy Fore at 9 and sell at 14! Ken

To: The Phoenix who wrote (23763)	3/19/1999 1:13:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 77398

<<however for Cisco to lose 70-80% of it's value - that's ludicrous... you can't possibly support this assumption with facts. >> Re-read your line and you will find what is ludicrous. I don't have the quotes from future, in that respect, I am sorry I will have to disappoint you. OTOH. My "assumption" has as much validity as some Bull on this thread telling the he expects the stock to double this year (some time in Feb or early March) I don't recall your challenging his assertion at that time. Why is it OK to let the hype go unchallenged and negative opinions be discredited? Any how, for the thinking challenged, I have some numbers: KO closed at 1.3875 on 14th Match 1973 on volume of 12100; and at 0.4414 on Octber 4, 1974 on volume of 63800. That is drop of 68.2% in 1 1/2 years. Like wise, IBM dropped form 44.9734 (13 Feb 1973) to 18.9468 (13 Sept 1974) - a drop of 57.9% One more note: I expect some one to challenge these numbers as well. I am not going to give my source but I stand by these numbers. These are adjusted for all splits during the period (another one of those favorite disinformative challenges I can expect from some bulls.) If some one has any questions on these numbers, I will leave the burden of proof to them. This is the closest bubble period during which time nifty fifty is in vogue. As it is now. Now you will argue, you can't compare this period to that yada yada yada. I know the bull case. the new pair of dimes. They say the same in every historically over valued market. They could never overcome the human emotions which drive them to that level of euphoria and then cause a bust as NO more people were left to keep believing in those fantasies. I have no interest in changing your line of thinking. You can continue to belive what you like. But, stop trying to discredit other "opinions" by seeking proof for assumptions. Assumptions and views are just that. Assumptions and views! If I belive this is a bubble, I belive that this is a bubble! I have seen enough evidence of it. I feel no urge to prove it to you or anybody else. Good luck!

To: The Phoenix who wrote (23763)	3/19/1999 3:40:00 PM
From: James A. Shankland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

Interesting discussion. I'm a little reluctant to sign on to MMV's specific predictions (e.g., 70-80% drop in CSCO), but I don't think he's completely nuts :-). Gary, you eloquently expressed two different things: the sell-off might be a bit deeper...call it 7000 for argument's sake....a 30% delcine...which probably translates into a 40% shave for Cisco.... call it $70/share. Do you think we'll see buyers there? You betcha!! You may be entirely right about this. (As of today, I predict I'd be buying more CSCO at $70.) But here's why it might not be so: The economy and stock market are booming because growth is high and inflation is low. Inflation is low because wage growth is being kept in check, but the economy is booming because consumers are spending anyway. Why are they spending anyway? Because they feel affluent even though their wages are not rising, because their stocks and 401(k)'s are doing so well. This is a wonderful circle. Here's how the circle could turn vicious: earnings growth drops, the stock market pulls back, consumer confidence decreases, consumer spending declines, earnings drop some more .... More concisely, I think you really hit the nail on the head when you said: This always happens.... at least for the past 10 years. Bingo. History is full of things that happened for 10 (or 12) years, and then stopped. Shankland's First Law of Investing: History always repeats itself, except when it doesn't.