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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aknahow who wrote (9275)	3/19/1999 1:51:00 PM
From: Robert K.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

I ran accross a quite interesting off-line article about p values and power. Very informative. Basically bore out most all cacaito has been saying and attempting to teach us and then some. Will discuss more at some point is near future. Water>yes, I will read and follow that thread. Water is a interest of mine, and water investing has been a idea I have been meaning to follow up on.. Thanks T-dude. Regarding no news and stock drifting. All I can say is news will come. Yes they have missed the timing of many milestones, but many of those milstones are still out there. Matter of fact, I keep getting hunches that there is lots under xomas hat, and it is really perplexing why they continue to do this if this is the case, but that is my continued belief. I think this is a almost zero hype company under Jack. Actions, not words. As such, I always (try ) to expect the unexpected, and I do believe there is unexpected. Especially in regards to what we discuss vs what will probably occur. Standard K disclaimers.

To: aknahow who wrote (9275)	3/19/1999 9:25:00 PM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

While no further discussion is required I am amazed that I did not get it till now. In part it was my thinking that the FDA set the numbers when in reality they probably set the requirement that their be a pre established mortality level. Xoma was free to determine expected mortality in both arms and then seek approval of this component of the trial design from the FDA. You are right on the blind bit also. At first that helped me understand it but then I saw it even without going into it in my post. If for example the mortality target came only from the placebo arm and it was for example 200 then should the DSMB report to a company that mortality was 300 but the trials were not ending then the trial would be unblinded to the extent that the company would know that over 100 of the deaths came from the treatment arm. It is of course true and Martin did mention that reduction in mortality from improvement in the standard of care would also be a factor in determination of the time required to reach the target. I understood this from the start, but am mentioning now to be sure others do not think there was any implication the trial was being extended only because of fewer deaths than expected in the treatment arm.