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Technology Stocks : IRID - Iridium World Communications IPO Announced! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Geoff Goodfellow who wrote (1458)	3/19/1999 7:09:00 PM
From: Joe Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2693

SOUNDVIEW FINANCIAL CUTS IRIDIUM SUBSCRIBER FORECAST: Soundview Financial reduced its Iridium subscriber forecast and price target today, and made some fairly damning remarks about the company as well. 1999 subscriber numbers go down to 115,000 from 339,000; remember that Ed Staiano said in a conference call that cash flow breakeven was expected in the third quarter with something like 300,000 subscribers (or was it 500,000?). Soundview's number means the company will disgorge cash all year this year, and in my opinion that means trouble. First quarter subscriber number goes to 9,000 from 25,000 (violation of bank covenant a certainty at that number). The 1999 price target goes from $69 to $48. That's not a bad return from the current price, but tell that to someone who paid $45. As for customers, the analyst (Tim O'Neil) said the "U.S. government is still its best short term prospect". That inspires no confidence in me, at all. O'Neil believes, as I do, that Iridium, to sell product, must give away the phones (are you reading this, Maurice?). As for the government as a buyer, he says that until Iridium can offer fax, data and STU-III(security), it isn't likely the defense department will be a big buyer. "The largest forseeable contract from the U.S. government is two to three months out. This contract is for a few thousand handsets to be spread between the Army, Navy, Airforce and Marines..." The assets (satellites) are wasting away in space, being "under utilized today - every minute wasted will never be regained". There was some commentary about the complexity of Iridium's pricing structure (don't I know it!) and a strong suggestion that a COO in charge of marketing would be a good idea (that's what I said, too...) The Soundview analyst said in the report that this update on the company calls for a "shift in subscriber growth and usage expectations". "...we do not expect a significant ramp until early 2000." "Many of the issues mentioned in this note are being addressed by Iridium management but time is of the essence." "Model changes: Increased ARPU for satellite only customers to $383 from $300 Decreased subscribers in 1999 from 339K to 115K Decreased overall subs in 2006 from 7M to 3M" This is not a good report on the current state of Iridium and is the first of many such reassessments in my opinion. It is difficult to see how the company will pay for the system with these numbers. One might argue that the price decline to $20 adequately discounts these numbers, but if cash flow breakeven does not occur this year, I do believe there are other financial issues that will arise and require a major restructuring of the company before year-end. What a shame... a wonderful infrastructure practically wasted by poor marketing and execution. My opinion, of course...

To: Geoff Goodfellow who wrote (1458)	3/20/1999 2:47:00 AM
From: Geoff Goodfellow	Respond to of 2693

INTELSAT SHOWCASES RURAL TELEPHONY SYSTEM (Satellite Today; 03/19/99) Mar. 19, 1999 (SATELLITE TODAY, Vol. 2, No. 53 via COMTEX) -- Watch out mobile satellite services (MSS) operators, there's a new kid on the block ... Intelsat. Engineers from the international organizations are in the African state of Senegal to undertake a three-month rural telephony trial, aimed at taking business away from proposed MSS markets. The project is taking place with the cooperation of Sonatel, the Senegalese Signatory to Intelsat and will serve multiple villages using two VSAT/wireless local loop (WLL) stations. Engineers will demonstrate the technical feasibility of providing satellite interconnection for WLL installations through Intelsat satellites, including backhauling telephony services into the public switched network. "With this new trial, Intelsat intends to further promote a portfolio of rural telephony products from the stand alone VSAT, which provides a few lines, to various VSAT/WLL solutions, capable of handling 20 to many hundreds of subscribers in remote areas," said Fabrice Langreney, Intelsat's WLL project manager. Intelsat is using a DAMA network infrastructure supplied by STM Wireless of Irvine, Calif., operating via the Intelsat 603 satellite at 335.5 degrees E to conduct the Senegal trial. Intelsat hopes to market the VSAT/WLL system as an inexpensive alternative to the global mobile personal communications by satellite systems such as Iridium LLC [IRID], Globalstar L.P. [GSTRF] and ICO Global Communications [ICOGF]. Calls made via the Intelsat rural telephony systems will cost the user as little as 10 cents per minute, compared to the several dollars per minute planned by MSS providers. Intelsat recently has established similar VSAT-based rural telephony networks in South Africa, Peru and Venezuela. -0- Copyright Phillips Publishing, Inc. This article was sent to you by an Inquisit subscriber who thinks you may be interested in subscribing to our service. To find out more about Inquisit, or to sign up for a free trial subscription, visit us at inquisit.com. Delivered via the Inquisit(TM) business intelligence service. All articles Copyright 1999 by their respective source(s); all rights reserved.

To: Geoff Goodfellow who wrote (1458)	3/20/1999 2:49:00 AM
From: Geoff Goodfellow	Respond to of 2693

KYOCERA COMPLETES TERMINAL (Satellite Today; 03/19/99) Mar. 19, 1999 (SATELLITE TODAY, Vol. 2, No. 53 via COMTEX) -- Kyocera Corp. [KYO] is beginning to ship its Iridium LLC [IRID] satellite telephone handsets, after finally eradicating all software glitches from the units. Kyocera solved a software anomaly last month (ST, 2/22), which at that point had delayed release of its single and dual mode phones by four months. However, the company then discovered another problem and again had to postpone shipping (ST, 3/4). Kyocera handsets should now begin reaching the hands of subscribers by April. -0- Copyright Phillips Publishing, Inc. This article was sent to you by an Inquisit subscriber who thinks you may be interested in subscribing to our service. To find out more about Inquisit, or to sign up for a free trial subscription, visit us at inquisit.com. Delivered via the Inquisit(TM) business intelligence service. All articles Copyright 1999 by their respective source(s); all rights reserved.