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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MARK C. who wrote (18523)	3/19/1999 2:14:00 PM
From: Tim Luke	Respond to of 90042

i would hate to be long come monday in any and all of the blue chip techs...just my opinion

To: MARK C. who wrote (18523)	3/20/1999 2:24:00 PM
From: Stash	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 90042

Mark, <It sure seems coincidental that morgan warns on IBM the Dows biggest winner this last year and just happens to do it on options Friday and with the Dow sitting at 10,000. My question Does anyone think they just realized this today, 2hrs before the close. Maybe but I have my doubts. JMHO, MarkC.> Maybe WE are both paranoid Mark, but these revelations from some analysts at a very critical point in time, seem too coincidental. Remember DELL? Dan Niles of ML warned on Dell's future revenue growth on a Wed. after the mkt close. Enough time for ML to get their clients out of Dell at or near the high. Earnings were to be announced after the bell on Friday, if I recall correctly. Many investors would have bailed on Thursday not holding through earnings. Call me paranoid, if you will, but with so much money riding on these market moving calls, the large firms (Sharks) can make their future on the backs of all of us (guppies). Could not agree more with your post Mark. Also,JMO,Stan Late post...just catching up.

To: MARK C. who wrote (18523)	3/20/1999 3:18:00 PM
From: Tim Luke	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 90042

Dow 10k? Hooray! Now what? 9k? By Zapman, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 1:12 PM ET Mar 20, 1999 Letters to the editor (A.k.a. the whine rack.) SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Call it Zapman's corollary: When everyone says the market can do no wrong, it's time to get out. There are many similar rules. They're all extensions of the first and best law of investing: Buy low, sell high. If everyone followed that rule, we'd all be rich!! Things haven't looked this good since 1928 In case you haven't noticed, the market's high now. The Dow just cracked five digits for the first time ever. Now, the most heated discussion is about when the Dow will hit 11,000, and most folks agree it will be sometime this year. After all, there's controlled growth, inflation is low, money's cheap, and even Asia's starting to show signs of life. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index has gained more than 11 percent in the past couple of weeks, hitting its highest level since last July (not that last July was such a swell time in Japan). Money guru Larry Kudlow sneers the press has been ignoring the 25 percent across-the-board tax cut in Japan that should help put the bullet train back on track. To be sure, things haven't looked this good since 1928. The Dow jumped 38 percent that year to close at 300. Of course, that was just before ... you know. I don't even wanna say it. Over the next four years, the Dow had three of its worst 10 years, finishing 1932 at 59.93. That's an 80 percent decline in four years. Today on CBS MarketWatch New reports on housing, factory orders due IBM falls amid earnings confusion Hype builds ahead of Oscar night IVillage jumps on debut Buy, buy some American pie More top stories... CBS MarketWatch Columns Updated: 3/20/99 1:09:28 PM ET That's history Hey, don't worry. That was then. This is now. After the Big D, the government took steps to make sure that sort of thing can't happen again. So how bad can things get now? Well, the Dow lost 27 percent in 1974 -- its seventh worst year. That wasn't so long ago. Let's see, 27 percent off the Dow right now would take us down to 7,300. We were close to that neighborhood just six months ago (when the Dow closed at 7539), so that's how fast things change. If the Dow does fall, it'll probably roar right back to 10,000, right? Well, I guess they thought that back in 1972. That's when the Dow first cracked 1,000. Then it slipped. It didn't close over 1,000 again for 11 years. But, do we really have to worry now? Well, here's four reasons why I'd say "You're darn tootin'" Oil. One of the things that's been driving the U.S. economy is cheap oil. Now producers are planning cutbacks and crude futures have risen 50 percent in three months. Read my buddy Myra's Futures Movers Money supply Interest rates have been rising for months, and the Fed could even tighten if the economy doesn't cool. See Bond Report Inflation It's non-existent ... now. But labor supplies are extremely tight and this can't last forever. Look for wage pressures soon. See Kellner's blarney report Asia You think things are really better in Japan? You didn't read Paul Erdman's column on Japan, did you? Maybe you should. The guy's a genius. Besides, haven't you noticed all those adds for cheap Korean-made computers lately? $600 for a computer, printer and monitor? What do you think those kind of prices will do to the U.S.-based computer makers like Compaq (CPQ), IBM (IBM) and Dell (DELL)? So, you think I'm being paranoid? You're probably right. But that doesn't mean the Dow's heading to 11,000