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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (44027)	3/19/1999 6:45:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Earlie from Earlie: As posted, I've been a very cautious bear for well over a year. No longs, and only the most minute "nibbling" at shorts and puts. My stance is changing, primarily because I think the market is finally rolling over. I won't waste space commenting on why I feel this way, as each of us has to make that type of decision on his own. In choosing my targets for expanded short/put activity, MU remains number 1. Reasons are as follows. - PC sales meltdown is now underway. It will just get worse as the year progresses. PC unit sales will not meet the 15% unit expectation. (I actually expect that it will be down slightly) - The inexpensive PCs now dominate PC sales and sales pricing points continue to fall. Memory expansion per PC will be difficult at the bottom end. - Memory chip yield expansion has been larger than many expected or forecast. As a result, memory pricing will remain under pressure (64 mbit at $6.00 by Summer is my expectation). - Whether MU makes money or not is now irrelevant. TXN selling of necessity will be ruthless and constant. Intel isn't dumb and they too will wish to exit quickly. Large institutional holders have already filed and more will follow. Insider selling has been and continues to be manic. This stock is about to be inundated with selling, irrespective of what figures are posted next week. - Many have forgotten the debt. Check it out. It is a massive wet blanket to any future earnings. It may become much more than a wet blanket if earnings do not occur soon (which I think is impossible). Ah, the wonder of compounding interest. (g) With options madness behind us, Monday seems a good time to limber up the shovel. (g) Best, Earlie