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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ILCUL8R who wrote (29122)	3/19/1999 4:07:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 70976

I think this market is so overpriced that fundamental analysis is useless, except in as much as it may help predict earning surprises. My favorite stock for a while now has been TSM and RMBS. I don't see how one can lose on either of these with a 6 months horizon. regards, Sun Tzu

To: ILCUL8R who wrote (29122)	3/19/1999 5:14:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Re: <<This thread has been quiet lately because I assume most realize semi cond stocks are dead money for awhile.>> For me it's not dead money if I can avoid reporting my gains as ordinary income by holding until semiconductor equipment stocks have their next big rally. <<Does anyone have a good idea of when and at what price might be a good re-entry point?>> I think the sector will stay in a trading range for a while. I don't see anything that would cause new lows to rival the ones seen last year. The Asian crisis seems to be gradually working itself out, I suspect PC sales will pick up again once people are no longer waiting for Pentium III-based systems to become available, and once we are well into next year, the unknowns relative to Y2K will no longer be unknowns. I am willing to continue holding until next year or longer, if necessary. As for the best time to get back in, my guess would be when/if the market has another major correction due to Y2K fears or whatever. However, there's no guarantee that semi equip bookings will not take off before then, so my advice would be to look at the chart and try to put some money in near the bottom of the current trading range, but don't get carried away, because valuations are still plenty high. The idea, in my mind, is to have enough cash so you will not be hurting if you have to wait longer than you expected for profits to materialize, as well as to take advantage of any unforeseen buying opportunities that may come your way.