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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (20318)	3/22/1999 3:40:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 70282

Jim, >>Telecom sector also to be in the spotlight this week due to Morgan >>Stanley Dean Witter and Merrill Lynch conferences Mar 22-24 Keep in mind that I have not heard any of the conference calls from last Q so I am a little out of touch with what is actually going on this Q, but my conservative targets for the stocks we are talking about are 99 price target Current Price ADTN 18 16 3/4 ADCT 37 40 13 AFCI 12 8 PAIR 12 9 1/8 ADCT I like best from a management and product portfolio point of view, but the stock is priced to perfection at the current levels. ADTN and PAIR still derived a good portion of revenues from HDSL as opposed to ADSL. Those revenues will continue to decline. ADTN is yet to release its ADSL product. I don't know where PAIR stands. AFCI should have started shipping it ADSL product last Q I believe. All this is in the back drop of the indices advancing on a very narrow group of stocks. The Russell 2000 index indicates the small caps have done very little this year, so it might be a little bit of a wait for the stocks to move. On the other hand this sector is seeing a lot of mergers, so big gaps up can be expected. From a technical perspective, I don't see any rush to buy. I would wait to see what comes out of the conference next week and then take positions closer the the ADTN earnings next month. AFCI is still a good candidate due to the valuations and the take over rumors. You might see if there are any notes on the JBIL conference call on their thread from Mar 17,1999. They do assembly for CSCO and NT. That should give some indication on what the demand is like. On another topic, this is an interesting site. It has a interesting sentiment indicator based on market orders of the market makers. I don't have time to look take a close look but it looked useful. thomsoninvest.net Harry