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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7721)	3/19/1999 4:12:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Nice analysis of the BtB numbers. The numbers seem to support what every semi-equipment manufacturer has been saying in their conference calls with respect to a U shaped recovery. Most companies have also forecast that first half sales would be relatively flat for the first half of '99 compared with the second half of '98. I was surprised that others were surprised about shipments. Six months ago orders were sub-$500M and shipments now reflect the low order rates experienced during that low and subsequent months, not accounting for any turns business. I will go out on a limb and predict second half shipments will reflect current order rates. <G> Bob

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7721)	3/19/1999 4:28:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, (and John), In no way was anything in my post an attack on John personally. Rather it was, and is, a disagreement with the conclusions stated in his original post. Isn't that what SI is for? To permit an interactive discussion of differing views. Or have Robertson's Rules of Order been imposed on all such interactions? ;-) If so, I'm far from the worst violator at this site. I would completely agree with your observations on the B2B ratio itself. A ratio above about 1.05 for an extended period of time is probably an indication that customers can't get shipments when they're desired; and that the industry is just not being sufficiently responsive to the chipmakers. i.e. Backlog is building in terms of both $ and lead time to deliver. That, IMO, is not desirable for either the chip makers or the chip equipment makers. I would expect both bookings and billings to exceed $1B monthly by a solid margin. Whether or not they take out the old monthly highs on this up leg is open to conjecture. In any case, it's no big deal one way or the other. Everybody is completely free to ignore the fact that the B2B is seasonally adjusted; and to also ignore the fact that the variation for the preliminary number can be anywhere from insignificant to substantial. Personally, I believe a single point is not particularly relevant to making an investment decision. And certainly it becomes even more irrelevant when taken out of context of all other available information. Ian. P.S. This is not an attack on you, John or anyone. It's simply a statement of my belief with some of the reasons for holding those beliefs.