To: jimmyo who wrote (8911 ) 3/25/1999 5:50:00 PM From: Anthony Wong Respond to of 10227
Nextel Execs Dismiss Takeover Speculation By Denise Culver, Special To Inter@ctive Week March 22, 1999 11:31 AM ET Its bottom line continues to show up in vivid red, and its revised revenue forecast calls for lowered expectations, but wireless operator Nextel Communications has all the makings of a company on the move - right into some other company's acquisitions portfolio. Speculation about Nextel's future soared after a company meeting with analysts last month, at which Nextel executives reiterated the reasons they aren't interested in being bought out. "We clearly are running this business for the long term," Paul Blalock, Nextel's director of investor relations, said in an interview following that meeting. "We clearly need a partner less today than ever." But it's Nextel's apparent strengths in the wireless market that are making it more than fair game for a buyout or merger, with rumored suitors including Craig McCaw's NextLink Communications. Nextel operates a nationwide, all-digital wireless network, making it one of the few companies that can go toe-to-toe with AT&T Wireless Services on a national scale. Nextel's core subscriber base is business users, with half of its wireless traffic derived from a two-way radio service called Direct Connect. Nextel's business focus translates to what the company calls the strongest per-subscriber revenue in the wireless business. At the end of 1998, Nextel's monthly revenue per subscriber reached $70, while the company's digital subscribers more than doubled from 1.27 million to 2.96 million. But those silver linings do come with some clouds. At last month's meeting with analysts, Nextel said projected revenue for this year would be as much as 18 percent lower than originally expected, and that per-subscriber revenue probably will fall below the $70 monthly mark. Although the company cut its bottom-line loss in half in 1998, it still registered a fourth-quarter loss of $412.9 million on revenue of $591.6 million. Another potential trouble spot is the company's customer turnover rate. While Nextel has one of the lowest churn rates in the wireless business, that rate climbed in the last quarter of 1998 to 2 percent per month, up from 1.4 percent per month a year earlier. If that upward trend continues, it could be a signal that Nextel is migrating away from its core business customer to the consumer market, according to Herschel Shosteck, a wireless industry analyst and principal at Herschel Shosteck Associates. "By itself, the increase in churn is not significant," Shosteck says. "But if it continues to increase, it would be a sign that Nextel is beginning to target the consumer market, which means lower revenues for the company in the future." Nextel's Blalock maintains that churn rate by itself is not an accurate indicator of the company's performance, pointing instead to its high revenue per subscriber. He calculates the net value of Nextel's customers at about $2,000 per subscriber, as opposed to less than $1,000 per customer for AT&T Wireless. www4.zdnet.com