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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: abuck95 who wrote (17484)	3/19/1999 6:40:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

abuck, I believe that in the next two months we are going to start and hear about the problems that our trade deficit is causing to our balance of payment, that coupled with a possible resurgence of the Asian flue (couple with a S-A) flue as well as the backing up of interest rates due to what I consider a temporary bump in crude prices will all make the investment community a little squeemish, these factors as well as few others, will IMHO, bring about the "Spring Relapse" (and I do not think it has started yet, because we are still going to see some early April influx of cash, end of Quarter window dressing and few other seasonal factors between here and there.) I believe that by the end of June, the RMBS story will become more visible and money will start to flow into the stock, whatever the market does. I do not have an opinion yet as to when the relapse ends, I lean toward a coincidence of the end of the relapse with RMBS bottoming, but there is still an outside possibility that this relapse extends to something worse. I have three imponderable at this point, a: will Europe succumb to the Euro folly and fall into a recession (Germany is already showing some signs of doing just that), b: will Japan really recover and thus we can avoid a replay of last year's September early October Massacre (it is becoming a yearly affair) and c: how much fear will be sown in the markets by highly publicized Y2K problems cropping up. I have been told that March 31, 1999 is actually a little problem of that kind since Cobol based program are supposed to "die" on that date, but if that does not happen, I think that here and there we are going to read horror stories about embedded systems that cannot be taken care of, scares about nuclear reactors being shut down and what not. Hopefully most of these fears will be over by the middle of the year as more and more organizations announce their readiness for the new millenium, but if this continues beyond the middle of the year, we may be dragged a little longer. In any event, sometime during the second half, I see a turn around which will be driven by excess liquidity in the system. Nothing like excess money to bid up the price of shares. Zeev